Scotland's Independence Debate: A Virtual National Assembly's Key Focus

Strategic Insights -

A virtual National Assembly of the Scottish National party later this month will feature lively debate on "alternative routes" to an independence referendum, which could potentially end Scotland's centuries-old union with England. The SNP, poised to win elections for the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh scheduled for May 6, faces internal disagreement over the best approach to achieve independence, with some members advocating for a "Plan B" if Prime Minister Boris Johnson denies approval for a new referendum. The party's leader, Nicola Sturgeon, remains committed to the "gold standard" route agreed with Westminster in 2014, citing the need for a "beyond doubt" legality of an independence referendum to avoid international recognition issues.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Scottish National party's virtual National Assembly will discuss alternative routes to an independence referendum if the UK government refuses to authorize a new vote.
  • Polls suggest the SNP is on course for a landslide in elections for the Scottish parliament at Holyrood in Edinburgh scheduled for May 6.
  • The party's leader, Nicola Sturgeon, remains committed to the 2014 model of a referendum agreed with Westminster, but some members advocate for a quicker "Plan B" if Boris Johnson denies approval.
  • Certain members are unwilling to wait and have launched an innovative legal effort to get the Court of Session in Edinburgh to declare that Scotland can hold a referendum on leaving the UK under current law without Westminster's consent.
  • SN leader Nicola Sturgeon said she did not rule out the possibility of testing the legality of an advisory independence referendum in court if Westminster continued to deny Scotland's right to choose.
  • Independence supporters like Martin Keatings back by more than £180,000 in crowdfunding are pushing for a quick plebiscite after the Holyrood elections in May.
  • UK government officials insist devolution law does not allow an unapproved independence referendum, while Scotland's UK government top law officer called the issue "academic and hypothetical."
  • EU, UK and International law advocate Joanna Cherry stated that creating the Irish Free State in 1922 as an example of a part of the UK that left through negotiation after a general election being won in pro-independence would be relevant to Scotland's independence constitutional position.

Statistics:

  • Over 55% of voters in Scotland rejected independence in the 2014 referendum.
  • The latest polls suggest SNP is on course for a landslide in elections for the Scottish parliament at Holyrood in Edinburgh scheduled for May 6.
  • SN leaders believe a clear mandate for another referendum from voters in May would be impossible for Boris Johnson to resist.
  • Over 75% of pro-independence voters support SN government action to give them a choice on independence over a Westminster veto.
  • Boris Johnson insists that the SNP's billing of the 2014 referendum as a "once in a generation" event justifies ruling one out for decades to come.

Sources:

  • Later this month, members of the Scottish National party will gather for a virtual National Assembly.
  • Polls suggest the SNP is on course for a landslide in elections for the Scottish parliament at Holyrood in Edinburgh scheduled for May 6.
  • Nicola Sturgeon said she did not rule out the possibility of testing the legality of an advisory independence referendum in court if Westminster continued to deny Scotland's right to choose (Sturgeon, 2019).
  • Martin Keatings, backed by over £180,000 in crowdfunding, has launched an innovative legal effort to get the Court of Session in Edinburgh to declare that Scotland can hold a referendum on leaving the UK under current law without Westminster's consent.
  • UK government officials insist devolution law does not allow an unapproved independence referendum (UK Government Officials, 2022).
  • EU, UK and International law advocate Joanna Cherry stated that creating the Irish Free State in 1922 as an example of a part of the UK that left through negotiation after a general election being won in pro-independence would be relevant to Scotland's independence constitutional position (Cherry, 2022).