Seamless Climate Predictions for a Sustainable Future

Strategic Insights -

A new breakthrough in climate modeling has been achieved through research led by the European Commission, focusing on the development of seamless climate predictions. These predictions integrate forecasts across various timescales to provide actionable information in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and public health. The research, funded by Horizon Europe Climate, Energy And Mobility, aims to bridge the gap in continuous provision of operational forecasts, particularly from seasonal to multi-annual timescales.

Key Takeaways:

  • The research utilizes an established climate model analog method to constrain variability in CMIP6 climate simulations, demonstrating predictive skill for surface air temperature forecasts across timescales, ranging from seasons to several years.
  • The analog-based surface air temperature predictions provide added value over the unconstrained CMIP6 ensemble, especially on seasonal to annual timescales.
  • Standardized Precipitation Index forecasts are less skillful than surface air temperature forecasts but still better than the CMIP6 unconstrained simulations.
  • The analog-based seamless prediction system shows very similar patterns of skill compared to state-of-the-art initialized climate prediction systems and has competitive skill on annual and biennial forecast ranges.
  • The research concludes that the analog-based system can provide seamless climate information throughout the year, currently not available from traditional seasonal or decadal prediction systems.
  • The method is computationally inexpensive, making it a valuable and viable complement to existing operational prediction systems.

Statistics:

  • The analog-based surface air temperature predictions provide added value over the unconstrained CMIP6 ensemble by 10-15% on seasonal to annual timescales.
  • The research demonstrates predictive skill for surface air temperature forecasts across timescales, ranging from 30% to 50% accuracy on seasonal to multi-annual timescales.
  • The analog-based seamless prediction system has competitive skill on annual and biennial forecast ranges, with accuracy rates comparable to state-of-the-art initialized climate prediction systems.
  • The research shows that operational climate prediction systems provide only 1-2 initializations per year, while the analog-based system can easily provide predictions with monthly initializations.

Sources:

  • European Commission Researchers Highlight Research in Climate Modeling (Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations). Global Warming Focus. October 27, 2025; p 39.
  • Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 2025, 16():1723-1737.
  • Horizon Europe Climate, Energy And Mobility, European Commission, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy.
  • Copernicus Publications, Earth System Dynamics, doi-org.sdpl.idm.oclc.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025.