Severe Weather Threatens Southern Plains, Midwest

Strategic Insights -

A severe weather system is expected to bring significant threats of tornadoes, large hail, and flooding to the southern Plains and Midwest, including Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas. The system, which has already caused significant damage and loss of life in the region, is expected to continue its eastward march on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the threat of severe weather to the East Coast.

Key Takeaways:

  • The severe weather risk, as issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, includes much of central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northwest Arkansas, with a moderate (Level 4 out of 5) risk.
  • Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, and Springfield, Missouri, are within the zone, with a heightened threat for strong tornadoes.
  • The area is also under threat for strong tornadoes, with a total of seven days with a moderate risk level so far this year, the highest number since 2022.
  • The system has already been responsible for hail up to 5 inches in diameter on Sunday in northwest Oklahoma, and destructive hail up to 3 inches in diameter is forecast on Monday.
  • Potential flooding is also a concern, with several inches of rain expected to fall on saturated soil in parts of the region.
  • The flood potential is exacerbated by repeated rounds of rain and storms over the past several months, with areas that see multiple rounds of storms, such as northern Arkansas and across southern Missouri, at risk for widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals.

Statistics:

  • Moderate (Level 4 out of 5) severe weather risk covers approximately 60,000 square miles, including much of central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northwest Arkansas.
  • Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) severe weather risk covers approximately 30,000 square miles surrounding the moderate risk area.
  • Seven days with a moderate risk level for severe weather so far this year, the highest number since 2022.
  • Hail up to 5 inches in diameter reported on Sunday in northwest Oklahoma.
  • Destructive hail up to 3 inches in diameter forecast on Monday.
  • Severe weather expected to march eastward on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the threat of severe weather to the East Coast.

Sources:

  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - Storm Prediction Center
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