Shift in US Policy on Iraq: Bombing Campaign Marks End of Inspections and Containment Era

Strategic Insights -

As the U.S. and British bombing campaign against Iraq enters its third day, the White House is signaling a significant departure from years of contentious searches by the United Nations' Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) for evidence of Saddam Hussein's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs. The air campaign, which marks a new phase in the long U.S. effort to contain the Iraqi leader, has effectively ended UNSCOM's access to Iraq and has raised questions about the future of inspections. Critics and defenders of the administration's Iraq policy agree that the ground underneath the practice of relying on U.N. inspection teams may have shifted for good.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S.-led bombing campaign has effectively ended UNSCOM's access to Iraq, with Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Said al-Sahhaf hinting that the country may be willing to let inspectors back in, but only if they are "real UNSCOM" that can do their job.
  • The administration's shift in policy marks a significant departure from years of contentious searches by UNSCOM for evidence of Saddam Hussein's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs.
  • The U.S. has spent $6.9 billion since 1991, not including the most recent military buildup, for operations in the Gulf designed to force Iraqi compliance with U.N. resolutions.
  • Former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter, who resigned in August after complaining about a lack of U.S. and Western support for inspections, says that UNSCOM is "going to be in cold storage" and that the U.S. will have to back down from the policy of containment.
  • Middle East experts say that the administration may be ushering in a new, more dynamic policy on Iraq, one that will require a larger military commitment in the Gulf and greater willingness to use force, possibly to overthrow Saddam Hussein.
  • Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, favors aggressive military containment of Iraq by U.S. troops, saying that relying on Iraqi opposition groups would be like "leaning on a tower of Jell-O".

Statistics:

  • The U.S. has spent $6.9 billion since 1991 for operations in the Gulf designed to force Iraqi compliance with U.N. resolutions.
  • UNSCOM has destroyed thousands of munitions and revealed a weapons-making machine that was far more ambitious and lethal than Western intelligence services had presumed.
  • 23 cruise missiles were launched by President Clinton in June 1993 on Baghdad after U.S. intelligence uncovered what it said was an Iraqi plot to assassinate former President George Bush.

Sources:

  • The Chicago Tribune, December 1998.
  • Brookings Institution.
  • Center for Strategic and International Studies.
  • RAND, the California-based policy research organization.
  • The United Nations' Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM).