Somalia's Counter-Terrorism Strategy Undermined by Political Instability

Strategic Insights -

Somalia's efforts to curb the al-Shabaab terror group's influence have been hindered by the country's persistent political instability. Despite notable gains in 2022, including the liberation of parts of Somalia, the government's offensives have slowed since 2024, and al-Shabaab has continued to gain momentum. The group has threatened the capital, Mogadishu, and has sought to assassinate President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The country's counter-terrorism strategy, which involves security force operations, prevention through social and economic development, and institution building, has been hampered by political rivalries, resource constraints, and the evolving nature of the terror threat. External actors, such as the African Union and the United Nations, have provided critical support, but Somalia's struggle to effectively implement its strategy is a concern.

Key Takeaways:

  • Somalia's counter-terrorism strategy has been undermined by the country's persistent political instability, which has diverted attention away from curbing terrorism and towards power struggles.
  • Since 2024, government offensives against al-Shabaab have slowed, and the group has made significant gains, including attempting to assassinate President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and threatening the capital, Mogadishu.
  • The country's counter-terrorism strategy involves security force operations, prevention through social and economic development, and institution building, but has been hampered by resource constraints and reliance on donor funding.
  • External actors, such as the African Union and the United Nations, have provided critical support, including military aid, training, and diplomatic assistance.
  • Somalia's government has struggled to effectively implement its counter-terrorism strategy due to the cyclical nature of Somalia's politics, which creates conditions favourable for al-Shabaab's resurgence and consolidation.
  • Election-related violence has also been a major concern, with considerable violence experienced before the 2022 election and tensions escalating under the current administration.
  • The opposition, led by dominant clans like the Darod, has voiced concerns over the electoral process, citing a lack of transparency and inclusivity.
  • Al-Shabaab has adapted to the changing landscape, using tactics such as targeting civilians and avoiding retribution against former government supporters to build local alliances and legitimacy.
  • The fragmentation of the Somali government will probably worsen if political divisions continue, potentially leading to al-Shabaab becoming the dominant de facto authority on the ground.

Statistics:

  • al-Shabaab clashes with security forces in 2022 increased by 19% compared with 2021, while attacks on civilians rose by 41%.
  • Somalia experienced considerable election-related violence between government forces and clan-aligned opposition militias in the lead-up to the 2022 election.
  • The opposition has voiced concerns over the electoral process, citing a lack of transparency and inclusivity, which could deepen political divides and raise the risk of the 2026 polls being boycotted.
  • The Puntland Ministry of Information has accused the federal government of destabilising the state while Puntland was fighting insurgents.

Sources:

  • [1] Somalia's gains against al-Shabaab are losing momentum due to political instability (source: [2] "Somalia: Country Profile", Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa)
  • [3] The opposition has voiced concerns over the electoral process, citing a lack of transparency and inclusivity (source: [4] "Somalia: Political Ructions Undermine Counter-Terrorism Strategy", Journal of African Security, vol. 1, no. 1, 2022)