Somalia's Counter-Terrorism Strategy Undermined by Politics

Strategic Insights -

The Somali government's robust counter-terrorism strategy, initially successful in liberating territory from al-Shabaab, has lost momentum due to recurring political instability. Political rivalries and tensions, particularly ahead of elections, divert attention from stemming terrorism and undermine the effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts. Since 2012, successive administrations have struggled to sustain counter-insurgency operations, with each new government beginning with intensified anti-terror efforts, but these diminishing as political tensions rise.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Somali government's counter-terrorism strategy involves security force operations, prevention through social and economic development, and institution building in the Somali National Army and police.
  • Al-Shabaab has adapted to the current political landscape by shifting its strategy to win over civilians, re-establish local administrations, and reduce civilian harm in attacks.
  • The group has also allowed people and goods to pass checkpoints, enabled civilian protests, and projected an image of accountability and governance.
  • The fragmentation of the Somali government will likely worsen if political divisions continue, making it more challenging to counter al-Shabaab's expansion.
  • Al-Shabaab's infiltration into government structures, like the army, has been facilitated by weak leadership and governance, exacerbating the security vacuum.
  • Decreased external support from the AU and UN, partly due to Somalia's requests, has worsened political instability and created a security vacuum.
  • The UN and AU have expressed concern about Somalia's ongoing political disputes and insecurity, underscoring the need for a more inclusive and effective governance framework.
  • The government must prioritize resolving federal-regional tensions and disagreements with the opposition to ensure a more cohesive counter-terrorism strategy.
  • Expanding talks with the opposition and member states to garner consensus and ensure inclusivity is crucial for countering al-Shabaab's influence.
  • Al-Shabaab's remediation services and taxation schemes have solidified its reputation as a parallel governance structure, challenging the government's authority.
  • Al-Shabaab has become more sophisticated in its recruitment and use of local administrators, leveling criticism against the government's ineffective provision of security and services.
  • Attacks on civilians have increased by 41% in 2022, and al-Shabaab's reclamation of strategic districts underlines the need for a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy.

Statistics:

  • Al-Shabaab experienced 19% more clashes with security forces in 2022 compared to 2021, and attacks on civilians rose by 41% in the same period.
  • In 2022, the group reclaimed parts of Somalia liberated by government forces, highlighting the challenges faced by the country's counter-terrorism strategy.
  • The number of civilians killed in al-Shabaab attacks increased by 35% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
  • The group's reclamation of the strategic district of Moqokori in July 2025 emphasizes the need for a more effective counter-terrorism strategy.
  • Since 2012, Somalia has experienced recurring political instability, undermining the country's counter-terrorism efforts.

Sources:

  • The Soufan Center (2025). Intel Brief: 2025 - April 2.
  • CTC (2025). Somalia at a Crossroads: Resurgent Insurgents, Fragmented Politics, and the Uncertain Future of AUSOM.
  • France 24 (2021). Somali opposition cordon off parts of Mogadishu as political feud turns violent.
  • ACLED (2023). Context Assessment: Heightened Political Violence in Somalia.