Soybean Futures Rise on Strong Export Sales and Technical Buying

Soybean futures are expected to increase 6 to 8 US cents per bushel, driven by robust weekly export sales and technical buying. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Nov soybean contract remains technically bearish, with a possible move to the August low of US$5.52. Analysts anticipate a short covering bounce, with near-term support at US$5.64 1/2 and then at US$5.57. Resistance is expected at US$5.72 and then at US$5.75.

Key Takeaways:

• The CBOT Nov soybean contract is technically bearish, with a possible move to the August low of US$5.52.
• Net 2004/05 US soybean sales for the week ended Sept. 9 were placed at 635,000 metric tons, well above trade estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 tons.
• Near-term support for soybean futures is seen at US$5.64 1/2 and then at US$5.57.
• Resistance for soybean futures is placed at US$5.72 and then at US$5.75.
• Soymeal futures are called US$1.00 to US$2.00 per short ton higher, reacting to higher than expected weekly export sales.
• Net old and new crop weekly US soymeal sales of 135,000 metric tons were above estimates calling for sales of 50,000 to 75,000.
• Soyoil is called 0.10 to 0.20 US cents per pound higher, with net US soyoil sales for the week also coming in above expectations, at 7,300 metric tons.

Statistics:

• Net 2004/05 US soybean sales for the week ended Sept. 9: 635,000 metric tons
• Near-term support for soybean futures: US$5.64 1/2 and US$5.57
• Resistance for soybean futures: US$5.72 and US$5.75
• US soymeal sales for the week: 135,000 metric tons (above estimates of 50,000 to 75,000)
• US soyoil sales for the week: 7,300 metric tons (above expectations of zero to 5,000 tons)

Sources:

• Resource News International via COMTEX
• Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
• Malaysian palm oil futures prices