Starmer's EU Deal: A Risky Reset for Voters

Strategic Insights -

Sir Keir Starmer has claimed that his recently signed EU-UK relations deal marks a new era for Britain, moving beyond the stale debates of the Brexit era. However, the reaction to the deal has been met with scrutiny, with opponents labeling it a "surrender summit" and "betrayal" of sovereignty. The deal aims to address the challenges of the mid-2020s, but some critics argue that it does not go far enough in addressing voter concerns. The prime minister's challenge is to convince voters that his deal is a positive step forward, and that debates over Brexit are a relic of the past.

Key Takeaways:

  • The EU-UK relations deal signed by Sir Keir Starmer contains a 12-year extension of the rights of EU fishermen to operate in UK waters, as well as an agreement to dynamically align with Brussels rules in the area of food safety.
  • The deal also includes plans to lower barriers to trade in food, including an undertaking to pay money to Brussels to develop work on food and animal standards.
  • Starmer has argued that the deal is a positive step forward, claiming that it will unlock £9 billion a year of economic benefits by 2040 through easier trade.
  • Critics, including Reform UK's Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, have labeled the deal a "betrayal" of sovereignty and have vowed to reverse certain measures in the deal.
  • A YouGov poll found that only 13% of voters list "Britain leaving the EU" as one of their three main concerns today, compared with more than 70% in 2020 at the height of Brexit talks.
  • A YouGov survey in January found that 55% of Britons believed it was wrong to leave the EU, with only 11% seeing Brexit as more of a success than a failure.
  • Starmer has presented his deal as "good for jobs, good for bills and good for our borders", but critics argue that the deal does not address the core concerns of voters.

Statistics:

  • 12-year extension of the rights of EU fishermen to operate in UK waters
  • £9 billion a year of economic benefits by 2040 through easier trade
  • 13% of voters list "Britain leaving the EU" as one of their three main concerns today (YouGov poll)
  • More than 70% of voters listed "Britain leaving the EU" as one of their three main concerns in 2020 (YouGov poll)
  • 55% of Britons believed it was wrong to leave the EU (YouGov survey in January)
  • 11% of Britons saw Brexit as more of a success than a failure (YouGov survey in January)

Sources:

  • YouGov poll
  • YouGov survey in January
  • Reform UK's Nigel Farage
  • Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch
  • FT View page 20