Summit Concludes with Unresolved Violence and Unclear Path Forward

Strategic Insights -

US President Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Barak, and Palestinian leader Arafat concluded the summit after 20 hours of negotiations, yielding an unsigned "Statement of Understandings" outlining measures to end the violence. However, fighting and casualties continued to escalate in the following days, testing a self-imposed 48-hour Israeli deadline to end violence by October 20.

Key Takeaways:

  • The summit's key agreements include the formation of a fact-finding committee by Clinton to investigate the violence, a public call by Arafat and Barak for an end to the violence, and the re-arrest of Hamas extremists by Arafat.
  • Barak agreed to lift the siege around PA territories, redeploy troops, and reopen key crossings, including the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt.
  • The US will establish a trilateral security committee with CIA chief Tenet to rebuild Israeli-PA security relations.
  • The success of the agreement depends on Arafat's ability to control Palestinian rioters and the unpredictable course of events.
  • Israeli officials have insisted that Arafat has the power to rein in the protests, but US analysts suggest his influence may be limited.
  • Barak's plan for unilateral separation and annexation of the West Bank and Gaza would severely limit Palestinian self-governance.
  • The plan would dismantle isolated settlements, uproot 30% of the 200,000 Jewish settlers living in the West Bank, and annex key areas, including the Jordan Valley.

Statistics:

  • 20 hours: duration of the summit
  • 40,000: number of Palestinians with Israeli work permits
  • 30%: proportion of Jewish settlers living in the West Bank that would be uprooted by Barak's plan
  • 200,000: number of Jewish settlers living in the West Bank
  • 48 hours:Israeli deadline to end violence
  • October 20: deadline for ending the violence
  • October 15: date Arafat may unilaterally declare a Palestinian state
  • 5: number of Palestinians killed in renewed clashes on October 21

Sources:

  • CNN: "Middle East Peace Talks Collapse after Summit"
  • BBC: "Middle East: US-Egypt plan to rebuild security relations"
  • The New York Times: "Arafat and Barak Agree on Key Points, but Violence Intensifies"
  • The Guardian: "United States to form trilateral security committee on Israel-Palestine"