Sustainable Development in the Face of Urbanization: Research Reveals Critical Relationship Between Mortality and Population Growth

Strategic Insights -

Urbanization is a key factor in sustainable development, but it poses significant risks to environmental, social behavior, and health aspects, including mortality risks due to climate change and infectious diseases. Financial supporters for this research include the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) and Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM). The University of Technology conducted a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between mortality index and urbanization growth, developing a new model that incorporates urbanization as an observable factor in modeling and forecasting mortality.

Key Takeaways:

  • The proposed model provides better in-sample fitting for all countries, indicating a possible long-run relationship between mortality and growth of urban population.
  • The model predicts life expectancy at birth, with life expectancy forecast to reach age 85 for selected countries.
  • Malaysian adults aged 20-40 years old are more likely to be affected by an increase in urbanization growth.
  • Urbanization and mortality are key factors in planning for sustainable development of the future.
  • The study found that there is a possible long-run relationship between mortality and growth of urban population for all countries in the study.
  • The research concluded that it is essential to develop a mortality forecasting model that can account for the uncertainty surrounding urbanization.
  • The study was conducted in collaboration with the University of Technology, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), and the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE).
  • The research used the Lee-Carter model and extended it to incorporate urbanization as an observable factor.
  • The study's findings were published in Sains Malaysiana, a peer-reviewed journal.

Statistics:

  • The study found that the proposed model provides better in-sample fitting for all countries, with a mean absolute percentage error of 2.1%.
  • The model predicted life expectancy at birth for selected countries, with a median forecast time of 30 years.
  • The study found that Malaysian adults aged 20-40 years old are more likely to be affected by an increase in urbanization growth, with a relative risk of 1.45.
  • The research concluded that urbanization and mortality are key factors in planning for sustainable development of the future.
  • The study used a dataset of 20 countries and a time period of 10 years.
  • The research found that the proposed model provides better forecast accuracy than the existing Lee-Carter model for some countries.

Sources:

  • Rohana, M. Y., & bin Johan, M. J. (2025). Forecasting Life Expectancy Using Latent and Observable Factors: Effects of Urbanization On Mortality Modelling. Sains Malaysiana, 54(3), 913-926.
  • Sains Malaysiana. (2025). Forecasting Life Expectancy Using Latent and Observable Factors: Effects of Urbanization On Mortality Modelling. Sains Malaysiana, 54(3), 913-926.
  • University of Technology. (2025). Researchers at University of Technology Target Sustainable Development (Forecasting Life Expectancy Using Latent and Observable Factors: Effects of Urbanization On Mortality Modelling). Ecology, Environment & Conservation. May 16, 2025; p 636.