Thai Rice Export Outlook for 2026 Appears Subdued Amid Global Competition

Strategic Insights -

The Thai rice export outlook for 2026 appears subdued due to various negative factors, including India's plan to release 20 million tonnes of milled rice, expected to significantly impact global rice prices. Despite this challenge, Thai rice exporters remain optimistic, with the Thai Rice Exporters Association maintaining its export target for next year at 7.5 million tonnes. However, the association's president, Charoen Laothamatas, emphasized the need for the government to invest in improving rice production and logistics, rather than relying on price subsidies. Meanwhile, the association's honorary president, Chookiat Ophaswongse, noted that Thai rice prices are expected to fall next year, potentially even lower than this year's prices, due to the global market trend.

Key Takeaways:

  • Thai rice exporters expect to ship 7.5 million tonnes of rice in 2026.
  • The production of in-season rice for 2025/26 is expected to reach 24 million tonnes.
  • Thai white rice exports fell by 43% to 2.9 million tonnes from January to Oct 27, due to India's resumed exports and increased global rice supply.
  • Shipments of Thai hom mali rice have performed well, exceeding 1.49 million tonnes, an 11% year-on-year increase.
  • The major importers of Thai rice were the US, Hong Kong, and Canada.
  • Total rice exports could reach nearly 8 million tonnes this year, surpassing the initial target of 7.5 million tonnes.
  • The Thai Rice Exporters Association maintains its export target for next year at 7.5 million tonnes, including 3.5 million tonnes of white rice, 1.7 million tonnes of hom mali rice, 1.4 million tonnes of parboiled rice, 600,000 tonnes of Thai fragrant rice, and 300,000 tonnes of sticky rice.
  • Several challenges lie ahead for Thai rice exports, including the need to develop new rice varieties to meet global demand, production and logistics costs, baht volatility, and government support.
  • Chookiat Ophaswongse noted that foreign traders projected white rice prices could fall to US$300 per tonne, marking a 30-year low, which would impact Thai rice farmers' prices.

Statistics:

  • 7.5 million tonnes: expected rice exports from Thailand in 2026.
  • 24 million tonnes: expected production of in-season rice for 2025/26.
  • 22%: year-on-year decline in rice exports this year as of Oct 27.
  • 43%: decline in Thai white rice exports from January to Oct 27.
  • 11%: year-on-year increase in shipments of Thai hom mali rice.
  • 1.49 million tonnes: shipments of Thai hom mali rice.
  • 20 million tonnes: India's plan to release milled rice.
  • 25 million tonnes: projected volume of India's rice exports in 2026.
  • 7.9 million tonnes: projected volume of Vietnam's rice exports in 2026.
  • 7.2 million tonnes: projected volume of Thailand's rice exports in 2026.
  • 330-340 USD/tonne: price range for 5% Thai white rice.
  • 350 USD/tonne: average price of Indian rice.
  • 360-370 USD/tonne: price range for Vietnam's rice.

Sources:

  • Thai Rice Exporters Association
  • Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association
  • Chookiat Ophaswongse, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association
  • US Department of Agriculture