The 2004 Presidential Election: A Close Call?

Strategic Insights -

Incumbent President George W. Bush is predicted to be reelected in November, thanks to his overwhelming fundraising advantage, strong support among self-identified Republicans, and effective message discipline. However, challenger John Kerry is gaining momentum due to the left-leaning groups' assault on the president, his ability to promise aggressive action against terrorism, and his learned lessons from Howard Dean's campaign. The election is expected to be close, and numerous factors could influence the outcome.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Bush has a significant fundraising advantage, with approximately $100 million in his bank account, compared to Senator Kerry's "goose eggs."
  • Bush enjoys strong support among self-identified Republicans, with 80% of them approving of his handling of the presidency (Gallup poll).
  • The Bush campaign's message discipline is unparalleled in modern history, with a clear and consistent message that Bush is a steady leader while Kerry is a flip-flop artist.
  • The Bush campaign has a strong advocacy advantage, with control of popular media channels such as Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the Drudge Report.
  • Kerry's plan to aggressively fight negative attacks from the Bush campaign could pay off, especially given his decorated Vietnam war experience and popularity among Democrats.
  • The Democratic Party is catching up in the advocacy media front, with the launch of Air America Radio and the Center for American Progress think tank.
  • President Bush's credibility is being challenged, particularly regarding the war in Iraq, the economy, and the administration's handling of the new Medicare prescription drug law.
  • Bush's low approval ratings in key areas, such as the economy, taxes, Iraq, and education, make it difficult for him to win.

Statistics:

  • $100 million: President Bush's fundraising advantage (By all accounts).
  • 80%: Self-identified Republicans who approve of President Bush's handling of the presidency (Gallup poll).
  • 20%: Mileage Kerry has in his fundraising efforts compared to Bush's (By all accounts).
  • $170 million: Bush camp's predicted fundraising total for the general election (By all accounts).
  • $5 million: Ads announced by the Media Fund in key battleground states (By all accounts).
  • $1.9 million: Ads financed by MoveOn.org in key battleground states (By all accounts).
  • $5 million: Ads announced by the Media Fund, run by Harold Ickes (By all accounts).
  • 50% or less: Bush's approval ratings on key issues, including the economy, taxes, Iraq, education, job creation, and healthcare costs and availability.

Sources:

  • By all accounts (By Terry M. Neal, The Washington Post).
  • Gallup poll (exact date not specified).
  • The Washington Post/ABC News poll (exact date not specified).