The 2020 US Presidential Election: A Deep Dive

Strategic Insights -

The 2020 US presidential election is on the brink of a historic turnover, with former Vice President Joe Biden and California Senator Kamala Harris poised to become the new president and vice president of the United States. The election has witnessed a dramatic shift in momentum since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the country, with the Trump administration's handling of the crisis proving to be a major campaign issue. The election has also seen an unprecedented surge in voter turnout, with over 90 million Americans having already cast their ballots as of October 31.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Biden-Harris campaign has a strong chance of winning the election, with a projected 220 to 230 electoral votes in their bank and a clear path to reclaim the rust belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • The Trump-Pence campaign faces a narrow path to victory, relying heavily on polls showing that many Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day and the GOP's get-out-and-vote ground game to win the election.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed the political equation, with the US suffering over 229,000 deaths, compared to just 500 in South Korea, which has a similar population.
  • The election has witnessed an unprecedented surge in voter turnout, with over 90 million Americans having already cast their ballots as of October 31, close to 70 percent of the total 2016 voter turnout.
  • The Biden campaign's themes of unity and decency have resonated with voters, particularly among suburban women, college-educated whites, and people of color.
  • The Democratic ticket enjoys strong support from voters, with various quality surveys showing a majority of senior citizens favoring the Democrats due to COVID fears.
  • The election is expected to see a high voter turnout, with an estimated 60-70 percent of the electorate casting their ballots.
  • The election has also witnessed a gaining momentum for the Democrats to retake a Senate majority, with the challengers leading in Arizona and Colorado and having a good chance to win in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia.
  • The House of Representatives is also projected to add 15 to 25 Democrat seats to their current majority.

Statistics:

  • Over 90 million Americans have already cast their ballots as of October 31, close to 70 percent of the total 2016 voter turnout.
  • The US has suffered over 229,000 deaths due to COVID-19 as of October 30, compared to just 500 in South Korea.
  • The Biden campaign has a projected 220 to 230 electoral votes in their bank.
  • The Trump campaign relies heavily on polls showing that many Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day and the GOP's get-out-and-vote ground game to win the election.
  • The estimated voter turnout for the election is expected to be in the high 60's, the highest rate of participation in over a century.
  • The Democrats are forecasted to add 15 to 25 seats to their current majority in the House of Representatives.

Sources:

  • "The 2020 US presidential election" (author's personal experience)
  • "The Philippines' management of its 2016 elections" (Commission on Elections, 2015-2017)
  • Various quality surveys (dates not specified)
  • Election officials in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (dates not specified)
  • Campaign news and analysis (dates not specified)