The Balkan Gamble: What if Air Power Fails?

Strategic Insights -

The United States and NATO embarked on a high-stakes aerial campaign in the Balkans, with a range of advanced military assets being used to target Yugoslavian forces. However, the question remains: what if the air war is ineffective in stopping Slobodon Milosevic's aggression in Kosovo? With the possibility of ground troops being sent in, the scenario of American infantry and tanks fighting on European soil for the first time since World War II is a daunting prospect.

Key Takeaways:

  • The initial 48 hours of the air campaign were characterized by a significant display of aerial muscle, with the use of cruise missiles, B-52 Stratofortresses, F-117 jets, and Stealth B-2s.
  • Military gurus expect Yugoslav forces to refuse to stop marauding in Kosovo, despite nightly bombardment, which could lead to the need for ground troops to be sent in.
  • The U.S. and NATO deny plans to introduce ground forces into the conflict, with President Clinton stating that he does not intend to put troops into Kosovo to fight a ground war.
  • However, historical examples, including the use of aerial bombardment in Vietnam and Iraq, suggest that bombing alone may not be enough to stop aggression, and that ground troops may be necessary to achieve success.
  • The lack of a clear exit strategy from the conflict has been criticized, with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright stating that it may be futile to wait for the Yugoslavian government to surrender.
  • Cracks in the NATO facade are emerging, with Greece, Italy, and Germany showing divisions over the conflict, and anti-American riots in Macedonia.
  • Russia has threatened to send arms to Yugoslavia, adding to the complexity of the conflict.
  • Clinton's decision to strike at Milosevic has been deemed morally right by some, but the option of sending U.S. troops to Kosovo is highly unpopular and may be doom for his legacy.

Statistics:

  • 500,000 U.S. ground troops were deployed to follow the aerial onslaught against Iraq.
  • 38 sulky Republicans in the Senate voted against airstrikes in Kosovo.
  • Polls show that Americans are 50-50 split on the air war in Kosovo.
  • The number of American troops in Kosovo could be as high as 100,000, with hundreds of casualties expected.
  • The cost of a ground war in Kosovo has not been estimated, but would likely be extremely high.

Sources:

  • A report by the Brookings Institution
  • A statement by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
  • A Senate briefing by State and Defense department officials
  • A article by Sandy Grady, Washington columnist for the Philadelphia Daily News
  • A news release by the Knight-Ridder Washington bureau