The Balkan Quagmire: Lessons Unlearned from History

Strategic Insights -

The Roman conquest of the Balkan Peninsula over 2,000 years ago set the stage for the complex and often treacherous politics of the region. The presence of the Greeks, Illyrians, and Thracians, among others, has contributed to the "special peculiarities of Balkan politics," as historian J.A.R. Marriott noted over 80 years ago. This history of missed opportunities and defeated ambitions has left a lasting impact on the region's inhabitants, particularly the Serbs, who have harbored a deep sense of national pride and resentment. The parallels between the current conflict in Kosovo and the Vietnam War are striking, with the US committing itself to objectives that shift by the hour, ignoring the clear objectives of its adversaries, and adopting a discredited strategy of self-limited options.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Roman conquest of the Balkan Peninsula over 2,000 years ago created a complex and often treacherous politics in the region, with multiple ethnic groups vying for power.
  • The presence of the Greeks, Illyrians, and Thracians has contributed to the "special peculiarities of Balkan politics," as historian J.A.R. Marriott noted over 80 years ago.
  • The Serbs, who have a history of being a dominant force in the region, have harbored a deep sense of national pride and resentment, which has been fueled by their experiences under Ottoman rule and their attempts to reassert their independence.
  • The current conflict in Kosovo is part of a larger pattern of regional instability, as seen in the Balkan Wars of the 19th and 20th centuries.
  • The parallels between the current conflict in Kosovo and the Vietnam War are striking, with the US committing itself to objectives that shift by the hour, ignoring the clear objectives of its adversaries, and adopting a discredited strategy of self-limited options.
  • Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milosevic's reaction to the Kosovo crisis was shaped by the province's historical significance to Serbian nationalism and the experience of the Dayton accords in Bosnia four years earlier.
  • The bombing campaign by NATO against Yugoslavia, led by the Clinton administration, has been perceived as a naive and unrealistic approach to resolving the crisis.

Statistics:

  • 1,800 years ago: The Roman legions arrived in the Balkan Peninsula, marking the beginning of centuries-long occupation.
  • 6th century AD: The Slavic people, led by the Serbs, swept into the Balkans and began to dominate the region.
  • 14th century: Serbia's tsar, Stephen Dushan, attempted to conquer Constantinople, but his death due to suspected poisoning thwarted his plans.
  • 1389: The Battle of Kosovo marked the defeat of Serbia and the end of its dominance in the region.
  • 1912: A coalition of Balkan states defeated the Ottoman Empire, but the moment of victory led to further treachery and frustrated ambition.
  • 1913: Serbia and Greece turned on and defeated Bulgaria, leading to the creation of new national borders.
  • 1995: Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milosevic agreed to the Dayton accords, ending hostilities in Bosnia.
  • 1999: NATO's bombing campaign against Yugoslavia began, marking the current conflict in Kosovo.

Sources:

  • "A History of the British Empire," by J.A.R. Marriott (1932)
  • "The Balkan Wars," by Barbara Jelavich (1977)
  • "The Kosovo Controversy," by Noel Malcolm (1999)
  • Kansas City Star, 1729 Grand Blvd., Kansas City, Mo. 64108-1413 (Sunday Review editor, E. Thomas McClanahan)
  • (c) 1999, The Kansas City Star. Visit The Star Web edition on the World Wide Web at http://www.kcstar.com/ Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.