The Calcification of American Politics: A Threat to Democracy

Strategic Insights -

The upcoming coast-to-coast elections in the United States are a critical moment in the country's democratic history, as candidates who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election threaten to undermine the very foundations of American democracy. While it is tempting to view this phenomenon as a result of disregard for democracy, the issue is more complex, driven by a long-standing need to keep the other party out of government, combined with calcification, a process that has turned politics into a game of partisan identity and resulted in an increasingly polarized and inflexible electorate.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 2020 New York Times/Siena College poll reported that 62% of Republicans still believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.
  • Over 300 candidates on the ballots repeat the idea that Trump was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.
  • The need to keep the other party out of government has been a long time in the making, with both parties nationally viable and victory within reach.
  • Calcification has done to politics what it does to the human body: it makes things stiff and inflexible.
  • Voters are more firmly in place and harder to move away from their predispositions.
  • Calcification has four parts: increased similarity among voters within each party, increased distance between the two parties, the rise of identity-based issues, and partisan parity in the electorate.
  • The American National Election Studies have shown that Americans increasingly see important differences between the parties, with 90% of Americans believing there are significant differences in 2020.
  • The gap between how much people like their own party and dislike the other is larger now than it has ever been.
  • The importance of identity-based issues, combined with calcification, has led to extremely divisive politics.
  • The real challenge to democratic outcomes is often not the calcification itself, but the interaction with political action and its impact on voters.
  • The candidates who lose are equally important to the future of free and fair elections in the United States.

Statistics:

  • 62% of Republicans believe Trump was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election, according to a 2022 New York Times/Siena College poll.
  • Over 300 candidates on the ballots repeat the idea that Trump was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.
  • 90% of Americans believed that there are significant differences between the parties, as reported by the American National Election Studies in 2020.
  • 50% of Americans thought there were important differences between the parties in 1952.
  • 63% of Americans thought there were important differences between the parties in 1984.
  • 75% of Americans thought there were important differences between the parties in 2004.

Sources:

  • "The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy" by John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck
  • A 2022 New York Times/Siena College poll
  • The American National Election Studies