The Delusional Hopes for Balance in South Dakota Politics

Strategic Insights -

Billie Sutton, a Democratic candidate for governor of South Dakota, may have been close to winning the office in 2018, but the state's recent trend towards conservatism, fueled by the influence of President Trump, makes his chances of winning even slimmer today. The Republican primary, featuring candidates such as Toby Doeden, Dusty Johnson, and Larry Rhoden, is shaping up to be a contentious affair, with Trump's endorsement likely to play a significant role. With Trump's approval ratings consistently high in South Dakota, even after his involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, his influence on the state's politics is unlikely to diminish anytime soon.

Key Takeaways:

  • Billie Sutton lost to Republican Kristi Noem by just three percentage points in the 2018 gubernatorial election.
  • The state's recent trend towards conservatism makes Sutton's chances of winning a statewide office even slimmer.
  • President Trump's influence on South Dakota politics remains strong, with his approval ratings consistently high in the state.
  • The Republican primary is shaping up to be a contentious affair, with multiple candidates vying for the nomination.
  • Trump's endorsement is likely to play a significant role in shaping the primary election outcome.
  • Sutton's chances of winning the general election against a Trump-endorsed candidate are slim.
  • The state's partisan divide is unlikely to change in the near future.
  • Republican state lawmaker and lawyer Jon Hansen is also in the race, but his chances of winning the primary are considered slim.
  • Larry Rhoden, a credible Republican candidate, is expected to announce his campaign soon.
  • Rhoden has been building momentum for his gubernatorial run, and his campaign has been gaining traction.

Statistics:

  • 61.53%: The percentage of the general election vote President Trump won in South Dakota in 2016[^1].
  • 61.77%: The percentage of the general election vote President Trump won in South Dakota in 2020[^2].
  • 63.43%: The percentage of the general election vote President Trump won in South Dakota in 2024[^3].
  • $187,000: The amount of money Republican candidate Toby Doeden has spent on TV ads so far, a year before the primary election[^4].

Sources:

  • South Dakota Searchlight (https://southdakotasearchlight.com/tag/toby-doeden/)
  • Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2018)
  • Dakota News Now (https://www.dakotanewsnow.com/content/news/LIVE-at-3-PM-Trump-lands-in-Sioux-Falls-ahead-of-campaign-for-Noem-492707511.html)
  • Keloland (https://www.keloland.com/news/pence-campaigns-for-noem-during-rapid-city-visit/)

[^1]: Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_South_Dakota,_2016)

[^2]: Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_South_Dakota,_2020)

[^3]: Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_South_Dakota,_2024)

[^4]: South Dakota Searchlight (https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2025/07/21/republican-candidate-spends-187000-on-tv-ads-so-far-a-year-before-sds-primary-election/)