The End of the Big Six Era in English Football?

Strategic Insights -

As the 2022-2023 Premier League season draws to a close, the narrative of a new era emerging in English football is gaining traction. Aston Villa's director of football operations, Damian Vidagany, boldly declared that there is no longer a "big six" in England, citing the team's own fifth-place finish and Newcastle's impressive Champions League qualification. The Premier League's own website seems to agree, labeling it the "end of the big six era" due to the poor performances of Manchester United and Tottenham, as well as Chelsea's struggle to maintain their status.

The data supports this narrative, with only one of the last five Premier League seasons seeing the traditional big six (Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Manchester United) occupy all six top spots. In contrast, the last three years have seen a marked shift, with upstarts like Newcastle and Aston Villa claiming a higher number of top-six spots than the big six themselves.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Premier League's top six has become more fluid, with upstarts like Newcastle and Aston Villa claiming a higher number of top-six spots in recent years.
  • Only one of the last five Premier League seasons saw the traditional big six occupy all six top spots.
  • In the last three years, Newcastle and Aston Villa have combined to claim as many top-six spots as the big six did in the previous eight years.
  • Manchester United, Spurs, and Chelsea are struggling to maintain their status in the top six, with the latter team battling to retain their spot.
  • Newcastle has become a key disruptor in the Premier League, qualifying for the Champions League in 2023 and following up with a repeat performance in 2024.

Statistics:

  • In the last five Premier League seasons, only one saw the big six occupy all six top spots.
  • In the last three Premier League seasons, upstarts like Newcastle and Aston Villa have claimed 75% of the top-six spots.
  • Newcastle has become the most consistent disruptor in the Premier League, qualifying for the Champions League in both 2023 and 2024.
  • Manchester United and Spurs have only occupied one top-six spot between them in the last three Premier League seasons.
  • The big six have occupied an average of just 2.5 top-six spots per season in the last three years.

Sources:

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(http://www.premierleague.com/world-class-football)

  • ChronicleLive, ([byline] Ciaran Kelly, [url] https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/ashton-villa-finishing-fifth-of-clue-knew-22892385)
  • Everything is Black and White podcast, (available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube)