The Futility of Romancing McCain Voters

A significant aspect of the 2000 presidential campaign is George W. Bush's attempt to attract McCain voters, who were mostly independents and Democrats. The theory is that by endorsing some of McCain's positions, Bush can tap into the McCain voters he needs to defeat Al Gore. However, this strategy is based on a misunderstanding of the McCain campaign's appeal. While McCain did run on some Democratic issues, his campaign was ultimately about his personal heroic image. This image, however, was not enough to secure him the Republican nomination.

The McCain campaign's success in tapping into voters' desire for a president they can admire has been overstated. In reality, voters who supported McCain for his heroic image will likely return to the candidate of their usual party once the presidential election begins. A significant portion of McCain's voters will stay home if their preferred candidate is not on the ballot. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the 1992 Ross Perot campaign, where 20-25% of Perot's voters would not have voted if he hadn't been in the race, with the remaining voters splitting almost equally between Clinton and Bush.

Key Takeaways:

The McCain campaign was not primarily about issues, but about McCain's heroic image.
Merging personalities and issues does not guarantee electoral success, as seen with the attempted strategy of Bush attracting McCain voters.
A significant portion of McCain voters will not vote if their preferred candidate is not on the ballot or if the candidate they supported is no longer in the race.
Voters who supported McCain for his heroic image will likely return to their usual party's candidate once the presidential election begins.
The 1992 Perot campaign saw 20-25% of voters not participating in the election if Perot was not on the ballot, with the remaining voters splitting almost equally between Clinton and Bush.
Al Gore, the vice president, is courting race voters who are open to supporting his campaign.
Bush, on the other hand, will need to focus on running a solid campaign on the basis of his personality, issues, and vision for the nation's future to win the election.

Statistics:

According to a TV network poll, half of McCain's voters would back Bush, while the other half would switch to Gore.
20-25% of Ross Perot's voters in the 1992 election would not have voted if he hadn't been in the race.
The remainder of Perot's voters would have split almost equally between Clinton and Bush.
More than 100 million voters participated in the 1992 election.

Sources:

A column in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram by Bill Thompson
A Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services distribution
A 1992 election exit poll
A 2000 presidential campaign poll by a TV network