The Future of Consumer Technology: Insights from Industry Analysts

Strategic Insights -

This year's gadgets are all about portability and pictures, with cell phones capable of summoning video and music from the Internet, laptops that record TV shows, and Wi-Fi digital cameras that send photos to viewing websites. However, consumer preferences suggest that not all these new technologies will be successful, with analysts predicting that hybrid cameras will be more appealing than those with Wi-Fi capabilities. The cost of providing phones that can download streaming video is a significant barrier, and cell-phone companies have not been willing to subsidize prices to make them more affordable.

Key Takeaways:

  • Consumer preferences suggest that hybrid cameras will be more successful than those with Wi-Fi capabilities, according to Michael Greeson, president of the Diffusion Group.
  • Phones that can receive streaming video are unlikely to hit the mass-market price range of $100 to $150 for 18 months, as demand increases and cell-phone companies become more willing to subsidize prices.
  • The people who are buying multimedia phones today are the innovators, the earliest of the early adopters, said Greeson.
  • The Sanyo hybrid digital camera, which takes still pictures or up to an hour of video, is a move in the right direction, Greeson said, but the price is still above that of low-end digital videocameras and way above the price of digital still cameras.
  • Kodak's Wi-Fi camera may have less consumer demand, as many amateur photographers may not want to post their pictures on a website, and using for-pay Wi-Fi hotspots can be expensive.
  • Portable video is on many consumers' minds, but Microsoft wants to create a computer hub based in the family living room that will show movies, play music, and access the Internet.
  • The Media Center PC, which uses a TV-like remote control to manage video, music, and movies, is part of the strategy to create a family-friendly entertainment system.
  • Some consumer electronics products, such as portable hard disk drives, may have been made obsolete by the success of related products, such as the Apple iPod digital music player.

Statistics:

  • $100 to $150: The predicted price range for phones that can receive streaming video in 18 months.
  • 18 months: The predicted time it will take for phones that can receive streaming video to hit the mass-market price range.
  • $600: The price of Kodak's Wi-Fi camera.
  • 4 megapixels: The resolution of pictures taken with Kodak's EasyShare One Wi-Fi Camera.
  • 80 gigabytes: The storage capacity of the Iomega 80-gigabyte portable hard drive.
  • $180: The price of the Iomega 80-gigabyte portable hard drive.
  • $1,800: The price of the Toshiba Qosmio laptop with Media Center PC.
  • $300 or $400: The price of the Xbox 360 videogame machine.

Sources:

  • Steve Alexander, Staff Writer, "This year's gadgets are all about portability and pictures," [No date provided]
  • Michael Greeson, president of the Diffusion Group, quoted in the article.
  • Microsoft, quoted in the article about the Xbox 360 videogame machine.
  • Kodak, quoted in the article about the EasyShare One Wi-Fi Camera.
  • Sanyo, quoted in the article about the Sanyo C5 Hybrid Camera.
  • Iomega, quoted in the article about the Iomega 80-gigabyte portable hard drive.
  • Toshiba, quoted in the article about the Toshiba Qosmio laptop with Media Center PC.
  • Verizon, quoted in the article about the LG VX9800 phone.
  • ESPN, quoted in the article about the Mobile ESPN phone.
  • Sprint Nextel, quoted in the article about the Mobile ESPN phone.