The Great Game in Central Asia: A Shift in US Foreign Policy and Regional Alliances

Strategic Insights -

As the former Soviet republics of Central Asia link up with Russia and China to counter the spread of radical Islam, the US faces a challenge in influencing the direction of the Great Game. The region has become a complex web of shifting alliances, behind-the-scenes competition, and disguised motives, with the US struggling to maintain its influence in the face of growing competition from Russia and China.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US State Department has changed its classification of "rogue" countries to "states of concern," allowing for the possibility of military strikes and trade with these nations simultaneously.
  • The Shanghai Five grouping, comprising Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, has agreed to establish an anti-terrorism center in Bishkek, with Uzbekistan joining as an observer.
  • The US is becoming increasingly suspicious of the Shanghai Five grouping, viewing it as an attempt by Russia and China to draw Central Asian states away from the American orbit.
  • The region's energy resources are a key driver of the Great Game, with Central Asian countries seeking to diversify their export options to maintain strategic links with all major powers.
  • Kazakhstan has ignored US criticism of its energy export options and is diversifying its routes to include Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China.
  • The US is warming to Iran, which could lead to the possibility of an Iranian export route for Central Asian energy, reducing the importance of the Russian and Afghan-Pakistan routes.
  • An Iranian route would address two of Washington's major post-Cold War concerns: Russian ambitions in Central Asia and Islamic terrorism.

Statistics:

  • Central Asia has a population exceeding 22 million, making Uzbekistan a geo-politically important country in the region.
  • The oil-rich Central Asian countries are diversifying their energy export options to maintain strategic links with all major powers.
  • According to estimates, the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan has 15-20 billion barrels of oil reserves, making it a super-giant field.

Sources:

  • The article does not provide specific sources, but mentions the following:

+ July 5 meeting of the Shanghai Five

+ OMT (Oil Magazine Today) of the same week

+ April meeting between US Secretary of State Albright and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev in Almaty