The Jonathan Factor: A Potential Game-Changer in Nigeria's Politics?

Strategic Insights -

Nigeria's political landscape is poised for an interesting turn as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appears to be rekindling its chances with ex-President Goodluck Jonathan's alleged presidential candidacy. Jonathan's name has resonated with Nigerians, recalling the past when families could afford three square meals without breaking the bank, and money had value. The former president's gentle mien, legendary humility, and first-conceded-defeat-in-Nigeria have carved a niche for him. However, his path to the presidency seems uncertain, with the APC controlling 23 out of 36 states and at least 30 federal lawmakers having crossed over to the ruling party.

Key Takeaways:

  • The PDP is reasserting itself with ex-President Goodluck Jonathan's potential candidacy, stirring up the polity and reigniting hopes of a change in leadership.
  • The APC has gained significant ground with 23 out of 36 states under its control, and at least 30 federal lawmakers having defected to the ruling party, complicating Jonathan's bid.
  • Jonathan's former presidential tenure was marked by the removal of the fuel subsidy, a move later emulated by President Tinubu, who also devaluated the naira, leading to widespread hardship for Nigerians.
  • The decision to run or not remains uncertain, with Jonathan needing to weigh his ambition against the political landscape's challenges, including the competition from the Atiku and Peter Obi camps.
  • The possibility of Jonathan's comeback has sparked a debate on whether he can solve Nigeria's myriad problems and how he would fare against the APC's strong base.
  • Jonathan has been an international statesman, serving as the UN Global Crisis Envoy, Chairperson of the International Summit Council for Peace, and Special Envoy-Mediator on Malian protests.

Statistics:

  • About 140 prominent opposition members in Nigeria have defected to the APC in the past two years.
  • 23 out of 36 states are under the APC's control.
  • At least 30 federal lawmakers have crossed over to the APC from the PDP.
  • The PDP appears to have revived with ex-President Goodluck Jonathan's potential candidacy.

Sources:

  • Bamidele Atoyebi, convener of the BAT Ideological Group
  • Zainab Suleiman Okino (FNGE), syndicated columnist (I did not verify the Twitter handle abbreviation zainabokino)