The Looming Threat of Political Violence in the United States

Strategic Insights -

As the nation grappled with the shocking murder of two Minnesota state legislators and their spouses, President Trump's response was a denouncement of the tragedy. However, the truth is that the landscape for such violence has been escalating due to a complex mix of factors, including deeply polarized politics, social alienation, disinformation, and in-your-face trolling on social media. The recent pardoning of January 6 rioters by Mr. Trump has normalized conduct that we once thought confined to developing countries with unstable forms of government.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Minnesota killings were reminiscent of the 2022 attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband in their home, highlighting the increasing threat of violence against public officials.
  • According to the US Capitol Police, there were over 9,000 incidents of threats against members of Congress last year, while threats against judges are also on the rise, with Chief Justice John Roberts noting more than 1,000 serious threats against federal judges in the past five years.
  • The current threat climate is attributed to a confluence of events, including the pervasiveness of social media, where anonymity makes it easy to lash out at strangers and where provoking outrage is rewarded.
  • President Trump's pardoning of January 6 rioters has normalized conduct that we once thought confined to developing countries with unstable forms of government.
  • The increasing use of divisive language and rhetoric by leaders, such as President Trump's refusal to denounce the extremist group Proud Boys, has contributed to the current climate of intimidation and fear.
  • A 2022 Joint Counterterrorism Assessment Team bulletin notes that violent extremists justify their actions through grievances, such as perceived government and law enforcement overreach, and the proliferation of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
  • The recent musing by President Trump about pardoning defendants involved in a plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a shining example of how his style of politics can contribute to the current climate.
  • The University of Michigan Law School professor and former US attorney Barbara McQuade notes that divisive speech from leaders only adds fuel to the fire and recklessly disregards the risk of provoking political violence.

Statistics:

  • Over 9,000 incidents of threats against members of Congress were documented by the US Capitol Police last year (Source: US Capitol Police).
  • More than 1,000 serious threats against federal judges were made over the past five years, as noted by Chief Justice John Roberts (Source: Chief Justice John Roberts).
  • The number of incidents of doxxing, or publicly releasing personal information, such as phone numbers or home addresses, against judges has increased (Source: Chief Justice John Roberts).
  • Nine men were convicted or pleaded guilty after participating in the 2020 plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Source: Local officials).
  • The 2020 plot to kidnap Governor Whitmer was motivated by a conspiracy theory that she was planning to impose stricter lockdown measures (Source: Local officials).

Sources:

  • US Capitol Police
  • Chief Justice John Roberts
  • Barbara McQuade, Professor from Practice at the University of Michigan Law School and former US Attorney
  • Joint Counterterrorism Assessment Team
  • Local officials in Michigan
  • New York Times Opinion Section