The Looming Threat to the Agri-Food Sector: Depopulation and Nutrition Insecurity

Strategic Insights -

As climate change continues to disrupt the agri-food sector, another threat is emerging that could be just as devastating: depopulation. With more than 60 countries experiencing population decline and over 100 expected to do so within the next 25 years, the industry's assumption that there will always be more mouths to feed is no longer valid. This shift in demographics poses significant challenges to the food sector, including labour shortages, weaker tax bases, and a reduced consumer base.

Key Takeaways:

  • More than 60 countries are already experiencing population decline, and this number is expected to exceed 100 within the next 25 years.
  • Fertility rates are falling below replacement levels in Europe, East Asia, and parts of Latin America, leading to shrinking populations in countries like Japan, Italy, South Korea, and Bulgaria.
  • Even countries like Canada and Australia, which have used immigration to offset domestic fertility declines, will eventually face demographic changes.
  • The agri-food sector must pivot from focusing on volume to delivering nutrition, quality, and personalized value as the population plateaus or declines.
  • The industry must adapt to a more heterogeneous market, where one-size-fits-all approaches are no longer sufficient.
  • Public policy must evolve to address nutrition security, emphasizing consistent access to food that promotes health and prevents disease.

Statistics:

  • 1 in 8 Canadian households experienced food insecurity in 2024, with the number likely being an undercount.
  • Food insecurity is associated with poor diet quality, reduced access to fresh and nutritious food, and broader health consequences.
  • The demand for nutritional care will intensify as populations age and chronic illnesses become more prevalent.
  • Malnutrition is a systemic issue, reflecting broader failures in how we view, measure, and address food insecurity.

Sources:

  • Sylvain Charlebois, senior director for the Agri-FoodAnalytics Lab at Dalhousie University
  • The Associated Press
  • Ettore Chiereguini
  • The World Bank
  • The United Nations