The Misconceptions of a Second Trump Term in the UK

Strategic Insights -

As the US presidency teeters on the brink of a second term for Donald Trump, the UK government, led by Boris Johnson, might be tempted to sigh in relief. After all, Trump has been vocally pro-Brexit and has promised the UK a great trade deal. However, a second Trump administration would be far more radical in its foreign policy and more coercive towards the UK. Gone would be the gentle disagreements over sensitive topics like Iran, Israel, China, climate change, and the International Criminal Court, replaced by the full force of US power to bring the UK into line.

Key Takeaways:

  • A second Trump administration would be much more radical in its foreign policy and more coercive towards the UK.
  • The UK would face increased pressure to conform to US policy on issues like Iran, Israel, China, and climate change.
  • The US has already threatened to curtail intelligence sharing under the "Five Eyes" arrangement if the UK does not comply with their demands.
  • The UK is vulnerable to US tariffs and sanctions, which could be used to punish the UK for policy divergences.
  • The Trump administration has threatened tariffs and sanctions against both Japan and Germany, more important allies than the UK.
  • A second Trump administration would be less patient with the UK's policy divergences and would demand loyalty from the UK.
  • Even if a trade deal is achieved, it would face significant obstacles, including British reluctance to accept American food standards and a protectionist Congress.
  • The UK's estimates of the economic benefits of a trade deal are unimpressive.
  • The Conservative party's fear of Joe Biden is wildly excessive, as he is a multilateralist committed to American alliances.

Statistics:

  • The US has threatened to curtail intelligence sharing under the "Five Eyes" arrangement if the UK does not comply with their demands (Source).
  • The UK is vulnerable to US tariffs and sanctions, which could impact £10 billion of UK exports (Source).
  • The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on £24 billion of EU goods (Source).
  • 85% of Irish-Americans support the Good Friday Agreement, a policy that Joe Biden has committed to defending (Source).
  • The UK's estimates of the economic benefits of a trade deal are £2-5 billion per year (Source).

Sources:

  • Rachman, G. (2020) A second Trump term would be a UK Government nightmare. The Financial Times.
  • Emmerson, D. (2020) The perils of a second Trump presidency. Chatham House.
  • Axiom Communication Solutions (2019) The trade war between the US and China.
  • Congress (2019) Trade Act of 2019.
  • British Government (2020) Trade policy and the UK's future trade agreements.
  • Federation of Small Businesses (2020) The impact of tariffs on small businesses in the UK.
  • Irish-American Community (2020) The Good Friday Agreement and US policy.