The Paris Agreement: A Decade of Progress, But Inadequate to Offset Economic Growth

Strategic Insights -

A new University of Washington-led study shows that while the Paris Agreement has contributed to a reduction in carbon intensity, the overall effect has been insufficient to counterbalance the environmental impact of economic growth. Launched in 2015, the treaty aimed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The study, published in Communications Earth and Environment, utilized statistical analysis of a decade of data to assess the agreement's effectiveness.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Paris Agreement has led to a 3.1% annual reduction in carbon intensity, compared to 1.1% before the treaty was signed.
  • The net impact of the agreement, however, is still not sufficient to curtail warming, as global GDP has increased faster than expected.
  • Reducing economic growth is unpopular, and the world population is growing, making it challenging to control carbon intensity through policy.
  • The likelihood of keeping warming below 2 degrees has increased from 5% in 2015 to 17%.
  • The chance of catastrophic climate change, with a temperature increase of 3 or more degrees, has decreased from 26% to 9% since 2015.
  • China and the US have the biggest economies and are among the most wasteful countries, with China's carbon intensity being three times that of Germany's.
  • The US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would decrease the chance of staying below 2 C from 34% to 27%.

Statistics:

  • Global carbon intensity has decreased by 3.1% annually since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
  • The chance of catastrophic climate change has decreased from 26% to 9% since 2015.
  • The likelihood of keeping warming below 2 degrees has increased from 5% in 2015 to 17%.
  • China accounts for nearly one-third of total global carbon emissions and saw a 36% reduction in carbon intensity by 2024.
  • The US's carbon intensity is 50% higher than that of Germany's.

Sources:

  • University of Washington, October 18, 2025, "The Paris Agreement is Working, But Not Well Enough to Offset Economic Growth"
  • Communications Earth and Environment, October 17, 2025, "Paris Agreement is Working, But Not Well Enough to Offset Economic Growth" [1]
  • National Institutes of Health

Note: [1] The article number for the study is not provided.