The Supreme Court Nomination: A Partisan Battle Ahead

Strategic Insights -

George Bush's choice to replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court will be a highly contentious decision, precipitating a partisan war that may engulf his second-term agenda. The nomination is likely to be met with a lobbying frenzy from both the right and left, with conservative groups pledging to spend up to $100m on television advertisements and left-wing organizations preparing to fight the nomination. The stakes are high, as the choice could help put a conservative stamp on American life, or drive moderate voters away from the Republican hegemony.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Supreme Court nomination is a critical decision for George Bush, with both conservative and liberal groups ready to engage in a lobbying frenzy.
  • Conservative groups, including Progress for America, the American Centre for Law and Justice, and People for the American Way, are planning to spend up to $100m on television advertisements supporting the nominee.
  • The nomination has the potential to drive a wedge between moderate and conservative voters, with the decision impacting the Republican party's prospects in the mid-term elections and the prospects for Bush's second-term agenda.
  • The Supreme Court is the last branch of government controlled by Democrats, and conservatives are eager to implement a judicial revolution that will match their economic and foreign-policy achievements.
  • Justice O'Connor's retirement may not lead to a dramatic change on the court, as she was a moderate conservative who often sided with the liberal justices in key decisions.
  • Bush's nomination could be a litmus test for the party, with some arguing that he should choose a nominee who will implement a judicial revolution.
  • The risks of Bush heading too far to the right are huge, with the potential to split his party and alienate moderate voters.

Statistics:

  • Conservative groups plan to spend up to $100m on television advertisements supporting the nominee. (The Washington Post)
  • $50m-100m lobby groups will spend on the battle, with much of the money likely being squandered. (The Washington Post)
  • The Supreme Court is the only branch of government that conservatives do not control. (The Economist)
  • Justice O'Connor was a moderate conservative who sided with the liberal justices in 16 of the 21 cases this term that ended in five-to-four decisions. (The Economist)
  • In the 2000 case of Carhart v. Stenberg, Justice O'Connor cast the tie-breaking vote to uphold the core principle of Roe v. Wade. (The Economist)
  • The number of Americans who identify as conservative or very conservative is 36%, while those identifying as liberal or very liberal is 20%. (General Social Survey)

Sources:

  • The Economist, "Country Briefing from the Economist: The most difficult domestic decision of George Bush's presidency"
  • The Washington Post, "Bush's Supreme Court Pick Will Be a Battlefield"
  • People for the American Way, "PFAW Announces Its Opposition to the Nomination of Judge Alberto Gonzales to the Supreme Court"
  • Alliance for Justice, "AJF Opposes Bush Nominee for Supreme Court"
  • General Social Survey, "Time Trends of Party Identification"