The US-Iraq Standoff: A Critical Evaluation of Policies and Options

Strategic Insights -

As the United States and Iraq inch closer to a showdown, U.S. congressmen and Iraqi experts are criticizing America's policy as too shortsighted and too limited, with some suggesting that the target should be Saddam himself. However, the Clinton administration has reiterated that toppling Saddam is not its explicit mission, instead focusing on degrading his capacity to develop and deliver weapons of mass destruction. This policy raises critical questions about the effectiveness of a sustained air attack and the ability to undermine Saddam's leadership.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. goal should be removing Saddam from "effective leadership," but success would be extraordinarily difficult due to Saddam's survival of two wars and numerous uprisings.
  • Amatzia Baram, an Israeli expert on Iraq, advocates for a "preliminary attack" that would last for several days and then pause for a few weeks to give Saddam the opportunity to allow the U.N. weapons teams access to sites.
  • The target areas for the air attack could include eight presidential palaces in Baghdad, Tikrit, and Basra, as well as command control sites and Saddam's tanks.
  • Scott Ritter, the U.N. weapons inspector, estimates that the Revolutionary Guard forces are responsible for hiding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
  • President Clinton signed the "Iraq Liberation Act" on October 31, calling for training and equipping an Iraqi opposition force.
  • However, the administration believes that none of the existing opposition leaders can do the job of setting up a liberation force either in the Kurdish part of northern Iraq or along the southern flank in Kuwait.
  • Saddam's answer to a military attack could include launching Scud missile attacks or embarking on a terror campaign, including attempts to assassinate senior U.S. and British officials, as well as Israeli officials.

Statistics:

  • There are approximately 6,000 members of the Special Republican Guards.
  • The estimated number of elite troops in the Special Security Organization (SSO) is around 2,000.
  • The estimated number of tanks controlled by Saddam is around 2,500.
  • The probability of success in toppling Saddam is estimated to be around 20-25%.
  • The estimated number of Scud missile launchers remaining in Iraq is around 2.
  • The estimated number of U.N. weapons inspection teams that have been fooled by the SSO on previous occasions is around several.

Sources:

  • "Iraq Liberation Act" (signed by President Clinton on October 31)
  • State Department spokesman James Rubin (quoted in the article)
  • Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind. (quoted in the article)
  • Amatzia Baram, Israeli expert on Iraq (quoted in the article)
  • Scott Ritter, U.N. weapons inspector (quoted in the article)
  • Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the Iraqi National Congress (quoted in the article)
  • U.S. intelligence officials (quoted in the article)