Tories' 2019 Manifesto Promises Test New Government's Commitment

Strategic Insights -

The Conservative party's 2019 general election manifesto is set to become a benchmark for Rishi Sunak's new government, with promises of Brexit, NHS spending, tax cuts, and defense spending. Despite three years of significant changes in the UK and the world, the Tories' stance on key issues remains unclear. Grant Shapps, a senior Tory MP, has stated that Sunak is standing on the 2019 manifesto, but several promises have already faced questions or been abandoned. As the new government takes office, it is uncertain which commitments will be upheld and which will be revised or scrapped.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 2019 manifesto promised to give the NHS its biggest ever cash boost, but Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's indication of "efficiency savings" has raised questions about NHS spending in the years ahead.
  • The manifesto pledged to "get Brexit done" and ensure unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the rest of the UK, but the Northern Ireland Protocol remains unresolved, despite recent EU-UK talks.
  • The Tories committed not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT rates, but tax cuts and a reduction in stamp duty are continuing under the new government. However, it is unclear if these plans will survive under the next prime minister.
  • The manifesto vowed to keep the triple lock on state pensions, but ministers had considered ditching this promise due to the squeeze on public finances. The incoming prime minister may not be bound to stick to this commitment.
  • The Online Safety Bill, which aims to make the UK the safest place online, has faced delays and concerns about its scope. The new government's stance on this bill remains uncertain.
  • The 2019 manifesto committed to exceeding the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense and increasing the budget by at least 0.5% above inflation, but the new government may revise this commitment in response to spending cuts and economic pressures.
  • Fracking remains a contentious issue, with the 2019 manifesto promising to only back fracking if it can be done safely. The new government may choose to revisit this commitment or maintain a cautious approach.

Statistics:

  • NHS spending is below what is needed to deal with pandemic-linked backlogs, and the NHS wage bill will increase by £2 billion over the next year, which officials will have to find from existing budgets. (Source: Institute for Government and Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy)
  • The UK government will receive an extra £6 billion a year from raising the basic rate of income tax to 20p, rather than the planned 19p. (Source: Jeremy Hunt)
  • The Conservative party's 2019 manifesto promised to create an extra 50 million general practice appointments a year. (Source: Conservative Party 2019 Manifesto)
  • The 2019 manifesto committed to increasing defense spending by at least 0.5% above inflation every year of the new Parliament. (Source: Conservative Party 2019 Manifesto)

Sources:

  • Conservative Party 2019 Manifesto
  • Institute for Government and Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy
  • Sky News: Grant Shapps on Rishi Sunak's commitment to 2019 manifesto (22 September 2022)
  • The Guardian: Jeremy Hunt confirms scrapping of 1p tax cut (15 September 2022)
  • BBC News: Rishi Sunak's defence spending pledge (7 August 2022)
  • The Telegraph: Tory MPs call for fracking vote as Sunak struggles to win over waverers on party's border with Labour (3 September 2022)