Toronto Mayoral Election: Olivia Chow Leads, But John Tory Could Pose a Threat

Strategic Insights -

Olivia Chow remains the preferred choice among Toronto voters, according to a recent opinion poll, but former mayor John Tory could be a contender if he decides to run for re-election. Forum Research surveyed 1,000 adults across Toronto and found that 36% of respondents would vote for Chow, followed by 30% for Tory, 18% for Coun. Brad Bradford, and 8% for former city councillor Ana Bailão. Thirteen per cent of respondents were undecided.

Key Takeaways:

  • Olivia Chow is the leading contender in the Toronto mayoral election, with 36% of respondents supporting her.
  • John Tory, the former mayor, would be a real threat if he decides to run for re-election, with 30% of respondents supporting him.
  • Coun. Brad Bradford and former city councillor Ana Bailão received 18% and 8% of the vote, respectively.
  • Thirteen per cent of respondents were undecided in their support for the candidates.
  • Chow's support is strongest with younger voters and those in the old city of Toronto, East York, Scarborough, and York.
  • Almost 70% of Chow's previous voters said they would back her again.
  • Tory's support was strong with middle-aged voters and those in Etobicoke and North York.
  • In head-to-head matchups, Tory and Bradford held a slight advantage over Chow.
  • The 2026 mayoral election is still fluid, with voter preferences changing over time.

Statistics:

  • 36% of respondents would vote for Olivia Chow if the election were held today.
  • 30% of respondents would vote for John Tory if the election were held today.
  • 18% of respondents would vote for Coun. Brad Bradford if the election were held today.
  • 8% of respondents would vote for former city councillor Ana Bailão if the election were held today.
  • Thirteen per cent of respondents were undecided in their support for the candidates.
  • 68% of Chow's previous voters said they would back her again.
  • Almost 70% of Chow's previous voters said they would back her again.
  • Tory's support was strong with middle-aged voters (45-54 years old), with 32% supporting him.
  • The margin of error for the interactive voice response telephone survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Sources:

  • Forum Research survey of 1,000 adults across Toronto, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research president, as quoted in the Toronto Star.
  • The Toronto Star article, "Toronto mayoral election: Olivia Chow leads, but John Tory could pose a threat" by David Rider.