Tory Prospects of Surviving as Prime Minister in Jeopardy Following New Evidence of Crushing Defeat in European Parliament Elections

Strategic Insights -

The Tory party's prospects of surviving as a major force in British politics are in serious jeopardy after a comprehensive survey by The Sunday Times revealed that they face a crushing defeat in next month's European parliament elections. The survey, conducted by acknowledged electoral analysis experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, shows that if the current voting pattern is repeated on June 9, the Tories will finish third behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats, losing more than half their Euro-MPs in Strasbourg. The most worrying finding for the Tories is that, on the basis of last week's votes, more than 200 Tory MPs would lose their seats in a general election, giving Labour a majority of 127.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Sunday Times survey projects that the Tories will finish third behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the European parliament elections, with Labour winning 56 Euro-seats and the Lib Dems capturing 14.
  • The Tories would lose more than half their Euro-MPs in Strasbourg, with only 12 seats projected for the party.
  • Labour would remain Britain's biggest party in Strasbourg, with a gain of 10 Euro-seats in the projections.
  • A computer analysis of 2.8m town hall votes in 100 constituencies shows the Tories would win only 12 of the 84 Euro-seats.
  • A survey of Tory backbenchers found that 60 MPs did not want John Major to stand down, while 14 did and there was one "don't know".
  • A survey of constituency chairmen found that 44 chairmen did not want Major to stand down, while three wanted him to resign and there were three "don't knows".
  • Former cabinet heavyweights on the Tory right, including Lord Tebbit and sources close to Baroness Thatcher, sided with Major in an attempt to maintain party unity.

Statistics:

  • 2.8m town hall votes in 100 constituencies analyzed by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher.
  • 2.8m town hall votes is equivalent to 87.3% of the total number of eligible voters (3.2m) in the constituencies surveyed.
  • 12 Euro-seats projected for the Tories, representing a loss of 20 seats compared to the current total.
  • 56 Euro-seats projected for Labour, representing a gain of 10 seats compared to the current total.
  • 14 Euro-seats projected for the Liberal Democrats, representing the party's first election victories in the European parliament.

Sources:

  • The Sunday Times, 1994.
  • Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Local Government Chronicle elections centre at Plymouth University.
  • Gallup, poll for On The Record programme on BBC1.