Trade Restrictions and Market Uncertainty Drive Global Hunger Backsliding

Strategic Insights -

Máximo Torero, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), warns that trade restrictions and growing market uncertainty have contributed to the recent setbacks in global hunger and malnutrition indicators. While progress has been made in some regions, the situation in Africa remains deeply concerning, driven by multiple structural challenges.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trade wars have reshaped global agricultural flows, creating market inefficiencies and undermining trust in the global trading system.
  • Unilateral tariffs and arbitrary trade actions have led to cascading effects, negatively impacting food availability and access, particularly in vulnerable regions.
  • The FAO advocates for a rules-based multilateral trading system under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to ensure that trade contributes positively to food security and nutrition.
  • Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to high food prices, which can disrupt supply chains, drive up global prices, and trigger volatility.
  • The FAO report found that more than 2.6 billion people globally cannot afford a healthy diet, with economic shocks and price volatility among the leading causes.
  • Countries must adopt integrated public policies that combine short-term relief measures with long-term strategies for building resilience, including strengthening domestic food production, improving early warning systems, and investing in climate-resilient agriculture.
  • The G20 has a pivotal role to play in tackling the drivers of global food insecurity, and should lead efforts to boost investment in sustainable agri-food systems, aiming to enhance resilience, productivity, and equity.
  • The primary structural driver of hunger in 2024 is the combination of low agricultural productivity and high exposure to external shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • The Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty has helped promote good practices, mobilize coordinated investment, and support the development of effective national policies to fight food insecurity.
  • Latin America has fared well in the fight against hunger and malnutrition, with a strong focus on supporting vulnerable populations and investments aimed at boosting agricultural production and efficiency.

Statistics:

  • 8.5% of the global population faced hunger in 2023.
  • 8.2% of the global population faced hunger in 2024, a decline of 0.3 percentage points.
  • 2.6 billion people globally cannot afford a healthy diet.
  • A 10% increase in food prices leads to a 3.5% increase in food insecurity and a 2.7% to 4.3% rise in child wasting.
  • Global hunger has been increasing again since 2015, driven in part by economic slowdowns and disruptions in international trade.
  • The drop in global hunger from 8.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2024 was primarily due to significant gains in South and Southeast Asia and in South America.

Sources:

  • Máximo Torero, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
  • Valor
  • FAO report
  • World Trade Organization (WTO)
  • Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty
  • Valor