Trans Rights Shift in Politics: A Dramatic Change in Focus

Strategic Insights -

As North Carolina governor Roy Cooper runs for Senate, Republicans are aggressively targeting his record on trans rights, reflecting a dramatic shift in the national politics of LGBTQ rights. The issue, once seen as a winning hand for Democrats, now poses a significant challenge for Cooper. Republicans, who were previously criticized for supporting the state's bathroom bill, are now embracing trans issues as a key part of their campaign strategy. This transformation is the result of a concerted effort by conservative activists, who used polling and grassroots organizing to reshape the narrative around trans rights.

Key Takeaways:

  • Republicans, who were once criticized for supporting the bathroom bill, are now aggressively targeting trans rights, including banning gender transition care for minors and restricting trans athletes from competing in women's sports.
  • The shift in focus is a result of conservative activists' efforts to reframe the narrative around trans rights, using polling and grassroots organizing to build support.
  • Democrats, including Cooper, are now struggling to respond to Republican attacks on their record on trans issues, with some arguing that it has become a liability.
  • The politics of trans rights have changed dramatically since 2016, when Democrats used the issue to their advantage in North Carolina.
  • Conservative activists have successfully rebutted what they see as "radical gender ideology" and successfully convinced some politicians that trans issues were good politics.
  • Cooper's campaign has deliberately avoided discussing LGBTQ rights, focusing instead on pocketbook issues like health care and the cost of living.
  • Republicans have made significant gains in North Carolina, including electing conservative lawmakers who have advanced legislation restricting trans rights.
  • The Human Rights Campaign, a national LGBTQ rights group, has noted that corporations are now more cautious in their response to trans issues, reflecting a changed risk calculus.

Statistics:

  • North Carolina lost more than $3 billion in business over the bathroom bill.
  • Most Americans support protecting trans individuals from discrimination in jobs (Source: [1]).
  • However, most Americans also support banning gender transition care for minors (Source: [1]).
  • The bathroom bill, HB2, was repealed in North Carolina, but conservative activists continued to push the issue at the national level.
  • The Trump administration revoked federal guidance on trans students' bathroom rights in 2017.
  • In 2023, Republican lawmakers in North Carolina advanced bills to ban gender transition care for minors, bar trans students from women's sports, and restrict public school instruction on trans topics.
  • Cooper vetoed the bills on women's sports, school curriculum, and gender transition care, but a GOP supermajority in the legislature overrode him.
  • Governor Josh Stein (D) vetoed a bill recognizing only two sexes but signed another bill that said parents cannot be investigated for abuse or blocked from adoption for "raising a child consistent with the child's biological sex."

Sources:

  • [1] "Most Americans support protecting trans individuals from discrimination in jobs, but most also support banning gender transition care for minors."
  • "The White House did not respond to requests for comment on McCrory's characterization of his conversation with Trump."
  • "Bruce Springsteen and Ringo Starr canceled their North Carolina shows."
  • "PayPal and Deutsche Bank said they would halt plans to add hundreds of jobs in the state."
  • "The NCAA relocated its championship events; the NBA pulled its All-Star Game."
  • "The state ultimately lost more than $3 billion in business over HB2, one analysis found."