Trump Administration's Medicaid Work Requirements Put Millions at Risk of Losing Coverage

Strategic Insights -

The Trump administration's Medicaid work requirements, passed alongside sweeping tax cuts, pose a significant threat to coverage for millions of low-income Americans. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has suggested that able-bodied individuals should seek employment on farms, despite evidence showing that most able-bodied Medicaid recipients are already working or facing significant barriers to employment. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nearly 5 million people will lose coverage by 2034 under the new requirements.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Trump administration's Medicaid work requirements will affect over 77 million low-income people, with nearly 5 million expected to lose coverage by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
  • Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has suggested that able-bodied individuals seek employment on farms, despite evidence showing that most able-bodied Medicaid recipients are already working or facing significant barriers to employment.
  • An analysis from health policy group KFF found that approximately 26 million Medicaid-covered adults between the ages of 19 and 64 are working either full or part-time, and nearly two-thirds of the remaining portion are not working due to caregiving or illness.
  • University of Massachusetts Boston researchers found that among able-bodied, unemployed Medicaid recipients, almost 80% are female, with an average age of 41 and a median individual income of $0.
  • A state like Arkansas, which attempted to use work requirements to cut costs and drive employment, saw 18,000 people kicked off Medicaid rolls in four months but experienced no positive employment impact.
  • Analysts argue that Medicaid work requirements are a solution to a problem that doesn't exist, with only about 6% of working-age Medicaid enrollees who probably can find work but haven't done so.

Statistics:

  • 77 million: The number of low-income individuals affected by the Trump administration's Medicaid work requirements (Congressional Budget Office).
  • 6 million: The estimated number of people who will lose coverage by 2034 under the new requirements (Congressional Budget Office).
  • 26 million: The number of Medicaid-covered adults between the ages of 19 and 64 who are working either full or part-time (KFF analysis).
  • 80%: The percentage of able-bodied, unemployed Medicaid recipients who are female, according to University of Massachusetts Boston researchers.
  • $0: The median individual income of able-bodied, unemployed Medicaid recipients, according to University of Massachusetts Boston researchers.
  • 4 months: The time it took for Arkansas to see 18,000 people kicked off Medicaid rolls after implementing work requirements.

Sources:

  • Josh Marcus, "Americans at risk of losing Medicaid coverage should go to farms, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says", Fox Business, Tuesday, (no date provided).
  • Congressional Budget Office, "Review of the draft version of the One Big, Beautiful Bill spending package" (no date provided).
  • KFF analysis, "The Effects of Medicaid Work Requirements on Low-Income Adults" (no date provided).
  • University of Massachusetts Boston researchers, "Characteristics of Able-Bodied, Unemployed Medicaid Recipients" (no date provided).
  • Matt Bruenig, "Medicaid work requirements are a solution to a problem that doesn't exist", The New York Times, May 2022.