Trump Keeps Distance from Marquee Races, Signaling Pessimism Ahead of Elections

Strategic Insights -

President Donald Trump has been surprisingly absent from key campaigns in mostly Democratic-leaning states, showing little enthusiasm for the November 7 elections. According to sources, Trump has only endorsed one statewide candidate in Virginia, Jason Miyares, who is likely to win. In New Jersey, he has limited his involvement to an endorsement and a telerally for GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who is facing stiff competition. Trump's team has worked to raise $25 million for voter turnout in California, but they are cautious about spending more due to the likelihood of Proposition 50 passing.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump has not officially endorsed the nominee for governor in Virginia, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who is trailing in the polls.
  • In New Jersey, Trump's team has contributed a seven-figure sum to county parties for use on turnout, but the president is not planning to rally voters in person.
  • The president has become more vocal about the races in the final stretch, urging his followers to "VOTE REPUBLICAN" on Truth Social.
  • Trump has a complex relationship with the GOP, with some members expressing frustration at his hands-off approach, while others believe alignment with Trump could backfire.
  • In Virginia, close to half of Democratic ads in the gubernatorial race and 69 percent of Democratic ads in the attorney general's race mention Trump, according to AdImpact data.
  • Downballot Republicans have not always been eager for Trump's help, with some opting to keep a distance from the president in California's redistricting fight.

Statistics:

  • Trump's team has raised $25 million for voter turnout in California.
  • 69 percent of Democratic ads in the Virginia attorney general's race mention Trump, according to AdImpact data.
  • Close to half of Democratic ads in the Virginia gubernatorial race mention Trump, according to AdImpact data.
  • Prop 50, which aims to redraw California's congressional districts, has raised far more money than its opponents.
  • The person familiar with the Trump team's thinking noted that it would take over $100 million to be in the hunt in a blue state like California.

Sources:

  • A senior White House official
  • Chris Saxman, a former GOP state delegate in Virginia
  • John McLaughlin, a longtime pollster for Trump
  • Marc Short, former chief of staff to Trump's first vice president, Mike Pence
  • Jon Fleischman, a former executive director of the California Republican Party
  • AdImpact data