Trump Threatens to Cut Off Cooking Oil Imports from China, Escalating Trade War

Strategic Insights -

In a fresh salvo in the ongoing trade war, President Trump has threatened to cut off imports of cooking oil from China in response to Beijing's decision to stop buying U.S. soybeans. The move comes as inflation at the grocery store and elsewhere continues to rise, posing a significant threat to consumers. China's traditional role as the top U.S. export market for soybeans has come under pressure in recent months, with Beijing instead turning to other countries such as Argentina to meet its soybean needs.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. could cut off imports of cooking oil from China in retaliation for Beijing's decision to stop buying U.S. soybeans, a move that could further worsen the trade war.
  • China has traditionally been the top U.S. export market for soybeans, but trade has ceased in the last few months due to a combination of factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing trade war.
  • Despite the decline in U.S. soybean exports, the USDA notes that domestic soybean oil production has risen sharply in recent years, mainly for use in biofuels.
  • The largest U.S. cooking oil imports for food purposes originate from Canada, Indonesia, and the European Union, according to data from the USDA.
  • Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, and has also suggested terminating business with China over cooking oil and other trade elements as retribution for what he perceives as an "Economically Hostile Act".
  • The White House has expressed a willingness to consider alternative sources of cooking oil, including domestic production of used cooking oil (UCO) for biofuels.

Statistics:

  • The U.S. imported approximately $1.4 billion worth of cooking oil from China in 2022, accounting for around 10% of total US cooking oil imports (US Census Bureau, 2022).
  • Over the past five years, domestic soybean oil production has increased by 22% to 22.1 million metric tons, mainly for use in biofuels (USDA, 2023).
  • In 2022, the largest U.S. cooking oil imports for food purposes came from Canada ($241 million), Indonesia ($176 million), and the European Union ($144 million) (USDA, 2022).

Sources:

  • Axios, "Trump threatens to cut off cooking oil imports from China" (26 Feb 2025)
  • USDA, "Soybeans and Oil Crops" (accessed 2023)
  • Truth Social, Trump (@realDonaldTrump) (25 Feb 2025)
  • USDA, "Charts of Note" (accessed 2023)
  • US Census Bureau, "Imports and Exports" (2022)