Trump's Economic Claims: A Closer Look at Wage Gains

Strategic Insights -

President Donald Trump has touted his economic policies, claiming that the average American worker has seen a $500 wage increase this year. However, a closer look at the data reveals a more nuanced picture. According to the White House, median weekly earnings rose from $1,185 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $1,206 in the second quarter of 2025, resulting in a cumulative $546 increase for full-time workers. However, experts prefer a different measure, which shows a smaller increase of about $121 over six months. Additionally, when inflation is factored in, full-time workers' take-home pay rose by only $26 during the first six months of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

  • The White House cited a $546 cumulative increase in median weekly earnings for full-time workers between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025, which is based on a smaller sample size of 60,000 households.
  • Experts prefer a different measure, which is based on a larger sample size of 631,000 worksites and shows a smaller increase of about $121 over six months.
  • When inflation is factored in, full-time workers' take-home pay rose by only $26 during the first six months of 2025.
  • The statement is partially accurate but leaves out important details about the sample size and inflation.
  • Economists Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Dean Baker agree that the preferred statistic is the payroll series, which is based on the Current Employment Statistics programme.
  • The White House's data is drawn from the Current Population Survey, which samples 60,000 eligible households.

Statistics:

  • Median weekly earnings for full-time workers rose from $1,185 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $1,206 in the second quarter of 2025, a cumulative gain of $546.
  • The preferred statistic, average weekly earnings of all private-sector employees, shows a cumulative pay increase of about $121 over the first six months of 2025.
  • When inflation is factored in, full-time workers' take-home pay rose by $26 during the first six months of 2025.
  • The Current Employment Statistics programme surveys 121,000 businesses and government agencies, collectively representing approximately 631,000 worksites.
  • The Current Population Survey samples 60,000 eligible households.

Sources:

  • https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ey wages.t04.htm
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Usual Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Wage and Salary Workers, 16 years and over, Seasonally Adjusted
  • Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum, interview with The Washington Post
  • Dean Baker, Cofounder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, interview with The Washington Post