Trump's Peace Deal for the South Caucasus: A Geopolitical Game-Changer?

Strategic Insights -

Washington's diplomacy-driven project, branded the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), has unveiled a preliminary peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, marking a significant shift in regional dynamics. Key to the agreement is the grant of a 99-year lease to the US to develop the strategically vital Zangezur corridor, which would bypass both Iran and Russia, boost east-west trade, and reduce Yerevan's reliance on Russian and Iranian routes.

Key Takeaways:

  • The TRIPP project aims to bring Armenia and Azerbaijan together, boost cross-border trade, and serve as a showcase for diplomacy-driven infrastructure, with potential benefits for western investment.
  • The project would bypass Iran and Russia, which could help normalise ties between Turkey and Armenia, and reduce Yerevan's reliance on Russian and Iranian routes.
  • The Zangezur corridor, to be developed and managed by US companies, would include communication and rail lines as well as oil and gas pipelines.
  • Armenia has long resisted plans to develop the corridor, seeing it as a threat to sovereignty, but Trump's deal attempts to address these objections by keeping the route under Armenian jurisdiction.
  • The agreement marks a significant defeat for Moscow, which had long exploited its control over regional transit, and would accelerate Armenia's drift towards the west.
  • Trump's deal offers a safer stage on which to cast himself as a global peacemaker, as compared to his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
  • The project poses an awkward challenge for neighbouring Georgia, which has drifted rapidly from strategic partnership with Washington into anti-American rhetoric.
  • Armenia's Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, faces a perilous year ahead of parliamentary elections in 2026, and Russia still maintains a military base in Armenia, which could influence the outcome of the election.

Statistics:

  • The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which was frozen for decades, culminated in a decisive Azerbaijani victory over Armenia in 2023.
  • Since its victory, Azerbaijan has pursued a more assertive foreign policy, with relations with Moscow soured further after Baku accused Russian air defences of downing an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet last year.
  • Russia's unwillingness to back Armenia doomed their alliance, and has driven both Baku and Yerevan closer to the EU and Washington, sidelining Moscow.
  • Armenian economy has been heavily reliant on Russian-dominated intergovernmental economic union, Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

Sources:

  • "US President Donald Trump" (the original text)
  • "Royal United Services Institute"
  • "Trump's overtures to Tbilisi's neighbours" (the original text)
  • "Yerevan's reliance on Russian and Iranian routes" (the original text)
  • "Baku accused Russian air defences of downing an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet last year" (the original text)