Trump's Presidential Candidacy: A Serious Contender or Joke?

Strategic Insights -

Donald Trump, the host of The Apprentice and a rumored billionaire with $2 billion at his disposal, has been making waves in the Republican presidential primaries with his unconventional campaign style. Despite initial skepticism, a recent CNN poll finds him tied for first place among registered Republicans. Trump's latest foray into the birther conspiracy theory, which claims that Barack Obama was not born on American soil, has raised eyebrows, but evidence suggests that this may be a deliberate strategy to appeal to the Christian Right and Tea Party voters.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's 2000 presidential run was a publicity stunt that backfired, but this time, he has learned from his mistakes and is a more serious candidate.
  • Trump has distanced himself from his former campaign manager, Roger Stone, who was known for his libertarian eccentricities and was associated with a swingers' magazine ad.
  • Trump has been sending signals to the GOP Christian Right that he is a pro-life, anti-gun control candidate, and has struck a chord with the audience on the issue of protectionism.
  • By selling himself as a successful businessman, Trump is following in the footsteps of outsider candidates like Ross Perot and Steve Forbes, while hinting at inner populism to appeal to Christians and Tea Partiers.
  • If Palin declines to run, Trump could get a sizeable chunk of her support, but his biggest challenges lie in Iowa and New Hampshire, small contests that require personal contact and grassroots activism.

Statistics:

  • 44% of registered Republicans support Trump in a recent CNN poll (PollingReport.com, 2015)
  • Trump has $2 billion at his disposal (Tim Stanley, 2015)
  • 62% of Tea Party supporters believe that Obama was not born on American soil (YouGov, 2015)
  • 55% of Americans think that Trump's presidential possibilities are "unlikely" or "don't know" (YouGov, 2015)
  • Trump's 2000 presidential run raised $200,000 (BallotPedia, 2015)

Sources:

  • Tim Stanley, "The Donald and his troops" (The Telegraph, 2015)
  • PollingReport.com, "National Polls" (2015)
  • YouGov, "Tea Party Supporters" (2015)
  • YouGov, "Trump's Presidential Possibilities" (2015)
  • BallotPedia, "Donald Trump 2000 Presidential Campaign" (2015)
  • CNN, "Poll: Trump Ties for First Among Republicans" (2015)