Trump's Shift on Israel: A New Era in Middle Eastern Politics

Strategic Insights -

As the relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu continues to deteriorate, Israel finds itself at a critical juncture in its policy towards Iran and its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With Trump's America unilaterally pursuing a new nuclear deal with Iran, Netanyahu is facing an existential dilemma: either accept a potentially flawed agreement or go it alone with a unilateral attack on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Britain's Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has slammed Israel's actions in Gaza, calling them "egregious" and "abominable," reflecting a shift in Western policy towards Israel under Trump's presidency.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's "America First" policy has led to a significant reduction in American support for Netanyahu's hawkish stance on Iran, with the US now pursuing a new nuclear deal with Iran.
  • Netanyahu's coalition partners, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, insist that Israel must press on with the war in Gaza and rebuild its settlements in the territory.
  • The Israeli prime minister's political future is under threat due to his ongoing corruption trial, which could result in a prison sentence if he is convicted.
  • The US has dealt separately with Hamas to secure the release of an American-Israeli citizen and has also reached a ceasefire deal with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, both of which are seen as moves to distance itself from Netanyahu's positions.
  • The US has lifted sanctions on Syria and met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Al-Qaeda commander, while simultaneously targeting al-Sharaa with Israeli air raids, further indicating Trump's willingness to disregard Israeli concerns.

Statistics:

  • Israel has launched direct strikes on Iran on at least two occasions, destroying much of Iran's air defences and missile arsenal.
  • The US has scrapped the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, and is now working on a new nuclear agreement with Iran.
  • Since Trump's presidency, the US has taken decisive action to distance itself from Netanyahu's positions, including cancelling a visit to Israel by the US vice-president and opening trade talks with Palestine.

Sources:

  • "Trump's Peace" by Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist
  • "America First is not Bibi Netanyahu First" by Richard Haass, a veteran American diplomat
  • "An America First foreign policy is just that, for better or worse" by Richard Haass
  • Speech by David Lammy, British Foreign Secretary
  • Article by Ksenia Svetlova, an associate fellow of Chatham House