Trump's Tariffs Backfire: Africa Turns to China, Russia as US Relations Strain

Strategic Insights -

As tensions between the US and its major trading partners escalate, African countries are beginning to turn to China and Russia for trade and investment opportunities, threatening to undermine the US's economic influence on the continent. The shift is attributed in part to US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies, including massive tariffs on imports from countries such as India and South Africa.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has defied US President Donald Trump's tariffs by increasing its Russian oil purchases, and Modi's meeting with Putin in Tianjin, China, shows that India will not be bullied by Trump's tariffs.
  • South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa has tried to straddle the divide and maintain relations with the US, but strained relations and Trump's cutting of aid to South Africa have led to signs of fatigue.
  • China's offer of zero-tariff access to the Chinese market for imports from 53 African countries that recognize China is seen as a shrewd geopolitical move, as China is diverting a substantial part of its exports from the US to Africa.
  • Russia's presence in Africa is growing, primarily in investments and other economic interaction, with Russia expanding the number of Sputnik and RT bureaus on the continent and pushing its message through several front organizations and paid influencers.
  • Pew Research Center surveys show that in South Africa and Kenya, the US has overtaken China as the perceived greatest threat to their country, potentially leading to more African countries joining BRICS.
  • The declining appeal of the West, accelerated by Trump's slashing of aid and large tariff increases, has led to increased popularity of Russia and China in Africa.

Statistics:

  • Exports from China to Africa total over $200 billion in 2025, with a value set to exceed that of the whole of 2020.
  • The value of China's exports to Africa has grown significantly this year, with a substantial part of its exports being diverted from the US due to higher tariffs.
  • South Africa's defence force chief visited Tehran in June, expressing political solidarity with Iran.
  • South Africa's military announced a joint exercise with Russia and China in November, but the exercise was postponed on Ramaphosa's instructions.

Sources:

  • New York Times
  • Reuters
  • The Sentry
  • ODI Global
  • Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Pew Research Center
  • Institute for Security Studies