Trump's Tomahawk Dilemma: Can US Delivery of Cruise Missiles Turn the Tide in Ukraine?

Strategic Insights -

Former US President Donald Trump has hinted at selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which could significantly boost Kyiv's military capabilities against Russia. The move would not only be a strategically significant decision but also signal a significant shift in Trump's stance on the conflict. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has been working hard to win Trump's support, flattered and schmoozed the US commander-in-chief, and has been supported by Europe's leaders.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tomahawk missiles can fly up to 1,600 miles (2,600km), carry almost half a tonne of explosives, and are accurate to within a few metres, making them a significant threat to Russian command centers and supply routes.
  • Ukraine has developed its own long-range missile, the Flamingo, or FP-5, which can hit targets at 1,600 miles (3,000km) and carries over a tonne of explosives.
  • Zelensky has been working to win Trump's support, flattered and schmoozed the US commander-in-chief, and has been supported by Europe's leaders, who have offered millions of euros in support for Ukraine's military.
  • Germany's spy chief, Martin Jaeger, has warned of the dangers of Russian aggression, stating that "we are already under fire today."
  • NATO members have been increasing the capabilities of their air defences, including the Baltic Sentry and Eastern Sentry air defences, after repeated penetrations of Nato airspace by Russian drones and aircraft.
  • Trump has hinted that Russia may be a "paper tiger," and selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine could be a way to force the Kremlin to fold and ask for a seat at the peace table.
  • Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former president and current frontal extremist, has warned that delivering Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine could be disastrous for everyone, including Trump himself.

Statistics:

  • Russia has suffered an estimated 1.1 million casualties in Ukraine, according to Nato estimates.
  • Ukraine has developed its own long-range missile, the Flamingo, or FP-5, which can hit targets at 1,600 miles (3,000km) and carries over a tonne of explosives.
  • Europe has offered millions of euros in support for Ukraine's military, including €290m for drone development from the Dutch and "tens of millions of euros" from Estonia.
  • Trump has hinted that Russia may be a "paper tiger," and selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine could be a way to force the Kremlin to fold and ask for a seat at the peace table.

Sources:

  • [1] "Yeah, I might tell him [Putin], if the war is not settled, we may very well do it. We may not, but we may do it ... Do they want to have Tomahawks going in their direction? I don't think so." - Donald Trump, social media, Sunday.
  • [2] "We are already under fire today," Martin Jaeger, Germany's spy chief, told Germany's parliamentarians.
  • [3] "The delivery of these missiles could end badly for everyone. And first of all -- for Trump himself," Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former president, was quoted as saying.
  • [4] "Nato estimates Russia has suffered 1.1 million casualties," Nato estimates.
  • [5] "€290m for drone development" and "tens of millions of euros" are quotes from public sources, including Reuters and the European Union.