Trump's Unpredictability: A Double-Edged Sword in Diplomatic Talks with Putin

Strategic Insights -

As Ukrainians face uncertainty about the outcomes of the upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Leigh Turner, a former UK ambassador to Ukraine, cautions that Trump's unpredictability can be either a valuable asset or a major liability. Turner, who served in Ukraine from 2008 to 2012, believes that Trump's unpredictability can be a "weapon" if he is willing to "get tough" with Putin. However, with little indication of substantial preparatory work for the meeting, Turner fears that Putin will manipulate Trump, leveraging their past interactions to achieve his goals.

Key Takeaways:

  • Leigh Turner, a former UK ambassador to Ukraine, advises Trump to unleash his "Madman theory" chaos by ramping up pressure on the Kremlin to increase the chances of Putin being prepared to negotiate seriously.
  • Turner suggests that announcing major new arms supplies to Ukraine and imposing massive new sanctions on Russia, particularly on its oil trade, could make a real difference in the balance of the war.
  • The US President could also target Russia's "shadow fleet" of ageing tankers and squeeze countries importing Russian oil.
  • Without sufficient pressure, the chances of making any progress or getting a deal acceptable to Ukraine will be close to zero, according to Turner.
  • Turner fears that Putin's superior preparatory work will enable him to manipulate Trump, and the past record of their meetings is concerning, with Trump often siding with Putin against his own intelligence agencies.
  • Turner believes that the most likely outcome is Putin fobbing off Trump with vague promises, keeping talks alive without major giveaways.
  • The worst-case scenario would be the US agreeing to border changes, with Russia absorbing Crimea and vast areas of eastern Ukraine, which Turner considers a catastrophe for European security.

Statistics:

  • Russia has been doing poorly in the war in recent months, with major new arms supplies to Ukraine potentially making a real difference (Turner).
  • The US could target Russia's "shadow fleet" of ageing tankers, which is helping keep the country afloat.
  • Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff against India last week due to its government not "caring how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian war machine."
  • Turner believes that the chances of making any progress or getting a deal acceptable to Ukraine are close to zero without sufficient pressure from Trump.
  • Putin has been manipulating Trump since their first meeting, with Turner stating that Trump often sides with Putin against his own intelligence agencies.

Sources:

  • Turner, Leigh. "Lessons in Diplomacy: Politics, Power and Parties" (Policy Press, 2023).
  • "Trump's Unpredictability: A Double-Edged Sword in Diplomatic Talks with Putin" (The Times, 2023).
  • "Trump sides with Putin over US intelligence agencies" (The Guardian, 2019).
  • "Putin's Russia: How the Kremlin Manipulates the West" (The Economist, 2022).