Turkey's Aggressive Energy Strategy Posing Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean

Strategic Insights -

Turkey's energy ambitions have been gathering pace under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's leadership, transforming the country into a significant regional player. Andreas Poullikkas, a professor of energy systems and former chairman of the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority, believes Turkey's energy strategy is multifaceted, aiming to enhance energy autonomy, establish itself as a regional energy hub, and project geopolitical power through energy leverage.

Turkey is combining major investments in renewables and nuclear power with a robust natural gas pipeline network, drawing on Russian and Azeri sources. Poullikkas notes that Ankara's approach is systematically interfering with exploration and drilling activities of other states in the Eastern Mediterranean, shifting the regional agenda away from cooperation and towards crisis management. Despite the country's ambitions, Poullikkas emphasizes that Turkey's legal and policy framework rests on three pillars: reducing energy imports, developing domestic energy resources, and creating a secure and predictable energy market.

Key Takeaways:

  • Turkey aims to reduce natural gas imports to 18.9% by 2025, install 52.9 GW of solar and 29.6 GW of wind power by 2035, and add 7.2 GW of nuclear capacity to its Akkuyu nuclear plant by 2028.
  • Turkey's renewable energy capacity has grown impressively, with solar capacity more than doubling to 19.6 GW in just two and a half years, saving the country approximately $15 billion in gas imports.
  • Turkey is using energy as a tool of geopolitical influence, seeking to control vast maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean through its "Blue Homeland" doctrine.
  • Turkey is interfering with the exploration and drilling activities of other states in the region, including Cyprus, and demanding joint exploitation of hydrocarbons within Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone.
  • Cyprus remains under sustained challenge from Turkey but is advancing its energy agenda methodically, seeking mutually beneficial partnerships with European and regional players.
  • Initiatives such as the Greece-Cyprus-Israel (GSI) electricity interconnector could be transformative for Cyprus, bringing benefits to consumers and sustainability.

Statistics:

  • Turkey aims to reduce natural gas imports to 18.9% by 2025.
  • The country aims to install 52.9 GW of solar and 29.6 GW of wind power by 2035.
  • Turkey's solar capacity has grown to 19.6 GW in just two and a half years.
  • The country aims to add 7.2 GW of nuclear capacity to its Akkuyu nuclear plant by 2028.
  • Cyprus plans to integrate its natural gas into the European transmission network.
  • The Greece-Cyprus-Israel (GSI) electricity interconnector is expected to bring significant benefits to consumers and sustainability.

Sources:

  • Andreas Poullikkas, professor of energy systems and former chairman of the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority.
  • The Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority.
  • The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
  • The European Union's internal electricity market.
  • The Greece-Cyprus-Israel (GCI) electricity interconnector project.
  • The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) initiative.