Turkey's Hydrological Hegemony: The Tigris-Euphrates Water Crisis

Strategic Insights -

Iraq, once known as Mesopotamia, is facing an existential water crisis due to Turkey's control over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The Southeastern Anatolia Project, launched in the 1970s, has included 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants, reducing water flow to Iraq by over 50% in the last four decades. With the Ilisu Dam operational since 2020, the Tigris's flow into Iraq is expected to decrease by up to 56%. The consequences are widespread, affecting agriculture, the environment, and urban water supplies.

Key Takeaways:

  • Turkey's control over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has reduced water flow to Iraq by over 50% in the last four decades, with further declines expected.
  • The Ilisu Dam, operational since 2020, has reduced the Tigris's flow into Iraq by up to 56%, with devastating consequences for agriculture, the environment, and urban water supplies.
  • Iraq's agricultural sector has suffered greatly, with entire rural communities forced to migrate due to a lack of water and crop failures.
  • The Mesopotamian Marshes, one of the world's largest wetland ecosystems, are drying up due to reduced water flow, causing displacement of the Madan (Marsh Arabs) and loss of biodiversity.
  • Turkey's dams have led to salinity intrusion in Iraqi cities like Basra, causing mass illnesses and public protests in 2018 and 2022.
  • Syria, caught in a prolonged civil war, has had limited diplomatic leverage to counter Turkey's damming policies, with actual flows often falling short of the 500 cubic meters/second agreed upon in 1987.
  • Turkey's pattern of behaviour suggests that it uses water as a tool for coercion, releasing water during tensions and restricting it during conflicts.
  • Turkey views the rivers as "transboundary," giving it full rights to develop and regulate them under its domestic policy, in contrast to Iraq's and Syria's calls for equitable and reasonable use under international water law.

Statistics:

  • Water flow from Turkey to Iraq has declined by more than 50% over the last four decades (Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources).
  • The Ilisu Dam has reduced the Tigris's flow into Iraq by up to 56% since 2020 (Al Jazeera, 2021).
  • 70% of Iraq's water is used for irrigation, with the agricultural sector suffering greatly due to reduced water flow (Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources).
  • The Mesopotamian Marshes are drying up, with significant loss of biodiversity and displacement of the Madan (Marsh Arabs) (UN Environment Programme).
  • Salinity intrusion in Iraqi cities like Basra has caused mass illnesses and public protests in 2018 and 2022 (AP News).

Sources:

  • Al Jazeera, 2021
  • Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources
  • Human Rights Watch, 2022
  • AP News, 2025
  • UN Environment Programme
  • Al Jazeera, 2021