U.S. Air Campaign Against Iraq: A Temporary Setback with Lasting Consequences

Strategic Insights -

A recent air campaign by the U.S. and British forces against Iraq has not resulted in a decisive blow against Saddam Hussein, according to senior Clinton administration officials and independent experts. Despite claims of success from the administration, the attacks are expected to lead to a more expensive and longer-term American military presence in the Persian Gulf. General Hugh Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the operation had achieved its objectives, including destroying nine missile research and development facilities and delaying Iraq's ability to turn short-range missile technology into long-range weapons by a year. However, former officers and independent observers believe the air assault has only produced temporary setbacks for Baghdad's ambitions to build missiles and chemical weapons.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. and British air campaign against Iraq has not resulted in a decisive blow against Saddam Hussein, according to senior Clinton administration officials and independent experts.
  • The operation has delayed Iraq's ability to turn short-range missile technology into long-range weapons by a year, but experts believe Baghdad will rebuild its capabilities in a few years.
  • The cost of the deployment is estimated to be substantial, with each of the 320 ship-launched Tomahawks costing nearly $250 million, and the 90 larger cruise missiles launched from B-52 bombers costing an additional $90 million.
  • The U.S. military will maintain a significant presence in the Persian Gulf, with 20,000 troops expected to remain as part of the regular presence in the region.
  • The continued projection of American forces in the Gulf is likely to strain relations with moderate Arab states and make allies in the region and around the world nervous about the habits and intentions of the last remaining superpower.
  • Rep. Porter Goss, R-Fla., chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said the operation was a temporary setback and set the U.S. further back in almost every way, with the exception of temporarily delaying Iraq's capabilities.
  • Defense Secretary William Cohen acknowledged that the sanctions will remain in place and U.S. forces will remain in the region, but acknowledged that controlling Saddam would be a long-term challenge.
  • Retired Gen. Binford Peay III, former commander of U.S. forces in the Gulf, estimated that if the attack was successful, the elite Republican Guard would only be able to muster two effective divisions out of the six.
  • Peay stated that unrest leading to the overthrow of Saddam is unlikely, and air strikes will only be partly effective against any weapons of mass destruction that can be moved.

Statistics:

  • The 320 ship-launched Tomahawks used in the operation cost nearly $250 million each.
  • The 90 larger cruise missiles launched from B-52 bombers cost an additional $90 million.
  • The total cost of policing Iraq in 1998 was $2 billion.
  • The number of U.S. troops deployed to the Persian Gulf is expected to be around 30,000, with 20,000 remaining as part of the regular presence in the region.
  • The number of planes and attack helicopters in the Gulf is 348.
  • The time period for the deployment is likely to be between a month and four months.
  • The number of U.S. troops in the region is expected to be 5,600.

Sources:

  • ABC's "This Week"
  • Gen. Hugh Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
  • Rep. Porter Goss, R-Fla., chairman of the House Intelligence Committee
  • Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
  • Defense Secretary William Cohen
  • Retired Gen. Michael Dugan, former Air Force chief of staff
  • Retired Gen. Binford Peay III, former commander of U.S. forces in the Gulf
  • Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.