Uganda's 2025/26 National Budget: An Election-Year Budget?

Strategic Insights -

The 2025/26 national budget, read by Minister of Finance Mr. Matia Kasaija, has been labeled an election-year budget by political analysts and observers. The budget, outlining the government's projected revenues and spending for the financial year, has been influenced by the forthcoming general election, set for early next year. Political players and analysts believe that the budget serves as a conduit for channelling resources towards prioritized mass programs and initiatives, favoring the incumbent government.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 2025/26 national budget has been identified as an election-year budget by political analysts and observers, citing its allocations and commitments that favor the incumbent government.
  • The budget allocates Shs1.059 trillion for the Parish Development Model (PDM) every year, which has raised eyebrows, with critics arguing that the program will be used to solicit votes for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) by using beneficiaries as campaign agents.
  • Dr. Sarah Bireete, an astute political analyst, argues that the salary raise for soldiers, specifically for lower-cadre Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) officers, is another indicator that the government's projected revenues and spending were influenced by the forthcoming election.
  • The UPDF is expected to play a more dominant role than the police in elections, with the governance, security, and rule of law sector receiving an allocation of Shs9.9 trillion.
  • The budget is seen as a political tool, with the Director of Manifesto Implementation, Mr. Willis Bashasha, stating that it is closely aligned with the NRM manifesto.
  • Critics argue that the budget process has been distorted to suit the NRM manifesto, rather than aligning with the National Development Plan.

Statistics:

  • The 2025/26 national budget allocates Shs1.059 trillion every year for the Parish Development Model (PDM) program.
  • An additional Shs100 billion has been allocated for the Emyooga initiative, bringing the total budget to Shs660 billion.
  • Shs215 billion has been allocated for salary enhancement for lower-cadre UPDF officers.
  • The governance, security, and rule of law sector receives an allocation of Shs9.9 trillion in the 2025/26 national budget.
  • The Ministry of Public Service is implementing a broader salary enhancement strategy for all public servants, including UPDF officers.

Sources:

  • An article published in Sunday Monitor, where Dr. Sarah Bireete, an astute political analyst, stated that the 2025/26 national budget is an election budget.
  • An interview with Mr. Willis Bashasha, the Director of Manifesto Implementation, where he stated that the coming national budget is closely aligned with the NRM manifesto.
  • A statement by Mr. Patrick Ocailap, the Deputy Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury (PSST), where he mentioned that the national budget is not unusual, as it can be a political tool.
  • An article published in Sunday Monitor, where Mr. Godber Tumushabe, the Associate Director at the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies, argued that the politicisation of the budget process has distorted the planning process.