Uganda's Election Cycle: A Story of Coercion and Control

Strategic Insights -

The 2011 and 2016 Ugandan presidential elections demonstrated a worrying trend of coercion and control by the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), as President Yoweri Museveni secured two consecutive terms. These elections showcased the government's refinement of its playbook, incorporating pre-emptive Internet shutdowns, voter intimidation, and media censorship to maintain its grip on power. The use of administrative and economic levers, such as monetary policy and fiscal restraint, effectively suppressed potential unrest and inflation. This narrative summary highlights the key takeaways from the 2011 and 2016 elections, which have left a lasting impact on Uganda's democratic journey.

Key Takeaways:

  • In the 2011 presidential election, incumbent Yoweri Museveni secured a fourth term with 68.38 percent of the vote, while Dr Kizza Besigye garnered 26 percent. Mr. Museveni's strong showing across all regions, including northern Uganda, which had historically rejected his rule, was notable.
  • Dr Besigye's decision not to contest the 2011 outcome in court was unusual, considering his previous losses in 2001 and 2006. Instead, he turned to protests, initiating the Walk-to-Work movement triggered by rising inflation and deteriorating living conditions.
  • The 2011 experience left the government with an important lesson: controlling the macroeconomic environment in the lead-up to elections is crucial. In 2016, the state employed tighter monetary policy and fiscal restraint to avoid inflation-triggered unrest.
  • The NRM secured 279 parliamentary seats in 2016, while FDC managed 34, maintaining its position as the largest Opposition party. DP won 11, UPC 9, and the Conservative Party just 1 seat.
  • The European Union Election Observation Mission criticized the 2016 process for being unbalanced, citing avoidable administrative and logistical failures, the power of incumbency, and the use of the Internet shutdown.
  • The 2016 campaign season witnessed Uganda's first-ever presidential debate, held on February 13, 2016, attended by President Museveni, but optimism was short-lived due to widespread voter intimidation and a second wave of blackouts on Election Day.
  • The 2016 blackouts set a precedent for the 2021 elections, where the entire Internet was shut down, and electoral violence intensified dramatically.

Statistics:

  • 68.38 percent: The percentage of votes secured by Yoweri Museveni in the 2011 presidential election.
  • 26 percent: The percentage of votes secured by Dr Kizza Besigye in the 2011 presidential election.
  • 60.75 percent: The percentage of votes secured by Yoweri Museveni in the 2016 presidential election.
  • 35.37 percent: The percentage of votes secured by Dr Kizza Besigye in the 2016 presidential election.
  • 10.3 million: The number of voters who cast ballots in the 2016 elections.
  • 28,000: The number of polling stations in the 2016 elections.
  • Shs3 billion: The reported cost to the taxpayer for President Museveni's May 12 inauguration in 2011.
  • Shs1.7 trillion: The amount withdrawn from the Treasury by President Museveni in 2011 to acquire fighter jets.
  • Shs600 billion: The amount sought by the Ministry of Finance as a supplementary budget in 2011.
  • 18 hours: The duration of the 2016 Internet shutdown.
  • 279 seats: The number of parliamentary seats secured by the NRM in 2016.
  • 36 seats: The number of parliamentary seats secured by FDC in 2016.
  • 15 seats: The number of parliamentary seats secured by DP in 2016.
  • 6 seats: The number of parliamentary seats secured by UPC in 2016.

Sources:

  • The 2011 presidential election results cited in the article.
  • The European Union Election Observation Mission report on the 2016 Ugandan elections.
  • The Commonwealth report on the 2016 Ugandan elections.