UK Government Unveils Four-Step Road Map to Ease Covid-19 Restrictions by Late June

Strategic Insights -

Boris Johnson has outlined a four-step plan to gradually lift all Covid-19 restrictions in the UK by late June, amid growing pressure from Conservative MPs to reopen the economy sooner. The British government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has released modelling studies indicating that even the most optimistic scenarios show a significant number of deaths and hospitalisations between now and the end of June due to ongoing restrictions and the limited protection offered by vaccines. Despite some Conservative concerns, Johnson has insisted on a "cautious" approach, opting for a phased unlocking of the economy that starts with the reopening of schools on March 8 and ends with the lifting of the last social restrictions on June 21.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UK government's four-step road map to ease Covid-19 restrictions includes the reopening of schools on March 8, outdoor service in pubs and restaurants on April 12, and indoor hospitality and entertainment venues on May 17.
  • The phased unlocking of the economy is expected to culminate in the lifting of the last social restrictions on June 21, subject to government review of non-essential international travel.
  • Chancellor Rishi Sunak will extend the furlough job-support scheme until June to help businesses affected by ongoing restrictions.
  • Additional measures, including a business rates holiday, are also expected to be extended.
  • Even the most optimistic modelling scenarios show between 150,000 to 280,000 people could be hospitalised and 32,200 to 54,800 people could die between February and the end of June.
  • The government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies modelling studies were conducted by teams at Imperial College London and Warwick University.
  • Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer welcomed Johnson's cautious approach, citing the need for an irreversible path back to normality.

Statistics:

  • 117,000 (106,000 in England) death toll from Covid stands as of the report.
  • 32,000+ people could die between now and the end of June due to ongoing restrictions and limited vaccine protection.
  • 150,000 to 280,000 people could be hospitalised between February and the end of June.
  • 32,200 to 54,800 people could die between February and the end of June.

Sources:

  • British government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
  • Imperial College London
  • Warwick University
  • News & analysis page 3 of the Financial Times
  • CAPTION(S) of the Financial Times