Ukraine and Allies Fear Trump-Putin Deal Without Kyiv

Strategic Insights -

European and Ukrainian leaders gathered outside London with top American officials to ensure that President Trump understands what is at stake as concerns grow that he and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin may forge an agreement on their own, bypassing Ukraine. In a meeting hosted by the British foreign secretary, David Lammy, and Vice President JD Vance, the Europeans showed their solidarity with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and tried to make clear their view that Mr. Trump should take their joint perspectives into account. The Europeans insisted that a cease-fire must precede talks on any territorial changes, that Ukraine will not hand over territory to Russia that Moscow does not occupy, and that any deal would have to be accompanied by security guarantees, including from the United States.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Europeans and Ukrainians are concerned that President Trump and President Putin may forge an agreement on their own without Kyiv's input, potentially imposing it on Ukraine.
  • The Europeans have committed to defending a sovereign, independent Ukraine and see Russia as a major strategic threat to themselves.
  • Ukraine will not hand over territory to Russia that Moscow does not occupy, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made clear on Saturday, and rejects any permanent loss of sovereign Ukrainian territory under international law.
  • European leaders have emphasized the need for Ukraine to be at the table in any negotiations and have pushed for a seat at the negotiating table.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been consulting with European counterparts to discuss the upcoming summit, including in a telephone call on Friday.
  • European leaders believe that President Putin values the symbolic display of a summit between Washington and Moscow, but sees no need to make significant concessions.
  • The Europeans are concerned that too many concessions to Russia will only feed its appetite for more, especially in the Baltics.

Statistics:

  • Russia has occupied Crimea since 2014 and is currently in control of parts of Ukraine's Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
  • The Donbas region of Ukraine, including both Luhansk and Donetsk Provinces, covers an area that Russia does not currently control.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been fighting for Ukraine's freedom and security for over three years.

Sources:

  • Two European officials who were briefed on the meeting on condition of anonymity to discuss the negotiations.
  • The French president, Emmanuel Macron, posted on social media on Saturday.
  • The foreign minister of Estonia, Margus Tsahkna, on Saturday in a post on X.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday.
  • An article in The New York Times by Roger Cohen contributing reporting from Paris.